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How to Find a Bust – Volume One (updated)
Joe Tarell, February 5, 2010
It would seem with all the analysis being done today and the freedom of information available on the Internet that NFL teams
should be further along in predicting who will make it and who will not when they reach the NFL level. At AFATT we believe in
the old adage, follow the money. If we can find out what happens when a 22 year old gets the taste of money for the first time,
we can answer many of the questions that arise from this annual fishing expedition called the NFL Draft.
Last year we identified some players that we felt might have the highest propensity to bust. We hit on some and missed on
others, the book is still out on a few more. The AFATT Instant Millionaire Effect, or IME, is designed to look for players who will
fail if they hit the lottery that comes with the first round of the NFL Draft. When people are put under extreme stress or come
upon instant success, many times their true character is revealed. The adage that character is built under pressure is
incorrect in many eyes, including these, who believe that it is revealed. People revert to their base instincts in these situations
and this is why the Marine Corps believes so strongly in tearing them down and building them back up.
With this in mind, let’s start the process of analyzing some of the top talent on many draft boards for 2009. The easy first
target is Andre Smith, the offensive tackle from Alabama. First he gets himself suspended from the Sugar Bowl whipping that
Alabama took from Utah for contact with an agent and then he goes AWOL from the Scouting Combine. He shows up at his
campus workout with a reported entourage present of 30 family members, three trainers, a publicist and his agent and he was
driving a 2009 Cadillac Escalade ESV, easily a $70,000+ vehicle with no bling added. He has a body that looks like it has seen
way more chicken fried steak, than barbells and he put 225 pounds up a whopping 19 times.
Taken individually these things would not cause too much concern because they are typically known as the “mistakes of
youth.” Taken collectively, they scare the hell out of me and if I am an owner about to guarantee this kid $25 million; they
should cause me to run like hell. The 19 reps on the bench press and the body by Fat Albert are the items that scare me the
most. He has been a three year starter at an SEC school, who by all accounts is the most talented left tackle in the draft. How
can you go to school for three years, claim to want to be the best offensive lineman of all time as he did in a recent interview
and not find a way to get strong enough to out lift a kicker (David Buehler from USC did 25 reps). If he did not find the time to
get in shape before the biggest job interview he will ever have, what will happen when he has $25 million in the bank.
The good news for Andre Smith fans is with that entourage he won’t have the money for very long, so the second team he
signs with may get a very talented AND motivated player. If he gets picked in the first round, unless it is late, he will probably
bust. We have seen examples where sliding on draft day has helped players, Randy Moss being an excellent example. When
the first AFATT mock draft is revealed, Andre Smith will get a second round grade, but we will probably have him going to
Cincinnati (they are still the Bungals, after all). Not because he is a second round talent, but because that might be the only
way to save him from himself (and his entourage). The final mock will put him where he belongs.
The above article was written in March 2009 and pretty well summed up our feelings for Andre. Well, guess what? Cincinnati,
as only the Bengals can do, picked him at number six in the first round and then could not sign him until training camp was
over. Naturally, ol' Andre was out of shape and got hurt. He played in only six games and was not a factor for the Bengals. All
of this for $21 million guaranteed. I guess the IME was right on the money with this one.
Because AFATT Says So….
Joe Tarell, February 5, 2010
It would seem with all the analysis being done today and the freedom of information available on the Internet that NFL teams
should be further along in predicting who will make it and who will not when they reach the NFL level. At AFATT we believe in
the old adage, follow the money. If we can find out what happens when a 22 year old gets the taste of money for the first time,
we can answer many of the questions that arise from this annual fishing expedition called the NFL Draft.
Last year we identified some players that we felt might have the highest propensity to bust. We hit on some and missed on
others, the book is still out on a few more. The AFATT Instant Millionaire Effect, or IME, is designed to look for players who will
fail if they hit the lottery that comes with the first round of the NFL Draft. When people are put under extreme stress or come
upon instant success, many times their true character is revealed. The adage that character is built under pressure is
incorrect in many eyes, including these, who believe that it is revealed. People revert to their base instincts in these situations
and this is why the Marine Corps believes so strongly in tearing them down and building them back up.
With this in mind, let’s start the process of analyzing some of the top talent on many draft boards for 2009. The easy first
target is Andre Smith, the offensive tackle from Alabama. First he gets himself suspended from the Sugar Bowl whipping that
Alabama took from Utah for contact with an agent and then he goes AWOL from the Scouting Combine. He shows up at his
campus workout with a reported entourage present of 30 family members, three trainers, a publicist and his agent and he was
driving a 2009 Cadillac Escalade ESV, easily a $70,000+ vehicle with no bling added. He has a body that looks like it has seen
way more chicken fried steak, than barbells and he put 225 pounds up a whopping 19 times.
Taken individually these things would not cause too much concern because they are typically known as the “mistakes of
youth.” Taken collectively, they scare the hell out of me and if I am an owner about to guarantee this kid $25 million; they
should cause me to run like hell. The 19 reps on the bench press and the body by Fat Albert are the items that scare me the
most. He has been a three year starter at an SEC school, who by all accounts is the most talented left tackle in the draft. How
can you go to school for three years, claim to want to be the best offensive lineman of all time as he did in a recent interview
and not find a way to get strong enough to out lift a kicker (David Buehler from USC did 25 reps). If he did not find the time to
get in shape before the biggest job interview he will ever have, what will happen when he has $25 million in the bank.
The good news for Andre Smith fans is with that entourage he won’t have the money for very long, so the second team he
signs with may get a very talented AND motivated player. If he gets picked in the first round, unless it is late, he will probably
bust. We have seen examples where sliding on draft day has helped players, Randy Moss being an excellent example. When
the first AFATT mock draft is revealed, Andre Smith will get a second round grade, but we will probably have him going to
Cincinnati (they are still the Bungals, after all). Not because he is a second round talent, but because that might be the only
way to save him from himself (and his entourage). The final mock will put him where he belongs.
The above article was written in March 2009 and pretty well summed up our feelings for Andre. Well, guess what? Cincinnati,
as only the Bengals can do, picked him at number six in the first round and then could not sign him until training camp was
over. Naturally, ol' Andre was out of shape and got hurt. He played in only six games and was not a factor for the Bengals. All
of this for $21 million guaranteed. I guess the IME was right on the money with this one.
Because AFATT Says So….
Site by Joe Tarell
JoeTarell.com
Sales Manager,
Sales Trainer,
Online Advertising
Consultant
JoeTarell.com
Sales Manager,
Sales Trainer,
Online Advertising
Consultant