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How to Find a Bust – Volume One
Joe Tarell, March 22, 2009
It would seem with all the analysis being done
today and the freedom of information available on
the Internet that NFL teams should be further along
in predicting who will make it and who will not when
they reach the NFL level. At AFATT we believe in
the old adage, follow the money. If we can find out
what happens when a 22 year old gets the taste of
money for the first time, we can answer many of the
questions that arise from this annual fishing
expedition called the NFL Draft.
Last year we identified some players that we felt
might have the highest propensity to bust. We hit
on some and missed on others, the book is still out
on a few more. The AFATT Instant Millionaire
Effect, or IME, is designed to look for players who
will fail if they hit the lottery that comes with the first
round of the NFL Draft. When people are put
under extreme stress or come upon instant
success, many times their true character is
revealed. The adage that character is built under
pressure is incorrect in many eyes, including these,
who believe that it is revealed. People revert to
their base instincts in these situations and this is
why the Marine Corps believes so strongly in
tearing them down and building them back up.
With this in mind, let’s start the process of
analyzing some of the top talent on many draft
boards for 2009. The easy first target is Andre
Smith, the offensive tackle from Alabama. First he
gets himself suspended from the Sugar Bowl
whipping that Alabama took from Utah for contact
with an agent and then he goes AWOL from the
Scouting Combine. He shows up at his campus
workout with a reported entourage present of 30
family members, three trainers, a publicist and his
agent and he was driving a 2009 Cadillac Escalade
ESV, easily a $70,000+ vehicle with no bling
added. He has a body that looks like it has seen
way more chicken fried steak, than barbells and he
put 225 pounds up a whopping 19 times.
Taken individually these things would not cause
too much concern because they are typically
known as the “mistakes of youth.” Taken
collectively, they scare the hell out of me and if I
am an owner about to guarantee this kid $25
million; they should cause me to run like hell. The
19 reps on the bench press and the body by Fat
Albert are the items that scare me the most. He
has been a three year starter at an SEC school,
who by all accounts is the most talented left tackle
in the draft. How can you go to school for three
years, claim to want to be the best offensive
lineman of all time as he did in a recent interview
and not find a way to get strong enough to out lift a
kicker (David Buehler from USC did 25 reps). If he
did not find the time to get in shape before the
biggest job interview he will ever have, what will
happen when he has $25 million in the bank.
The good news for Andre Smith fans is with that
entourage he won’t have the money for very long,
so the second team he signs with may get a very
talented AND motivated player. If he gets picked in
the first round, unless it is late, he will probably
bust. We have seen examples where sliding on
draft day has helped players, Randy Moss being
an excellent example. When the first AFATT mock
draft is revealed, Andre Smith will get a second
round grade, but we will probably have him going
to Cincinnati (they are still the Bungals, after all).
Not because he is a second round talent, but
because that might be the only way to save him
from himself (and his entourage). The final mock
will put him where he belongs.
The next player we want to take a closer look at is
Matthew Stafford. My concerns here are mostly
coming from the gut without many hard facts to
back it up. It starts with family life. He is from one
of the richest suburbs in Dallas, maybe in the
country, so money should not change his outlook
too much. He won a state championship in high
school at a school made famous by Doak Walker
and Bobby Layne, but which has struggled in the
last 30-40 years to win it all. He is a three year
starter at Georgia (which he chose because his
high school girlfriend was attending) and has the
good looks and rocket arm and a book full of
statistics. So, what is not to like you might ask?
What will happen if his so far perfect life gets
smacked in the face and he faces Joey Harrington-
like pressure in Detroit? Will he pull a Tim Couch-
like crying fit on camera when confronted by
reporters? He has responded well in pressure
games and did not crater under the pre-season top
ranking in 2008, but I am still not sold. More
research is needed before I make the call here, but
let’s just say my radar is up. More reviews to
come…
Because AFATT Says So….
Joe Tarell, March 22, 2009
It would seem with all the analysis being done
today and the freedom of information available on
the Internet that NFL teams should be further along
in predicting who will make it and who will not when
they reach the NFL level. At AFATT we believe in
the old adage, follow the money. If we can find out
what happens when a 22 year old gets the taste of
money for the first time, we can answer many of the
questions that arise from this annual fishing
expedition called the NFL Draft.
Last year we identified some players that we felt
might have the highest propensity to bust. We hit
on some and missed on others, the book is still out
on a few more. The AFATT Instant Millionaire
Effect, or IME, is designed to look for players who
will fail if they hit the lottery that comes with the first
round of the NFL Draft. When people are put
under extreme stress or come upon instant
success, many times their true character is
revealed. The adage that character is built under
pressure is incorrect in many eyes, including these,
who believe that it is revealed. People revert to
their base instincts in these situations and this is
why the Marine Corps believes so strongly in
tearing them down and building them back up.
With this in mind, let’s start the process of
analyzing some of the top talent on many draft
boards for 2009. The easy first target is Andre
Smith, the offensive tackle from Alabama. First he
gets himself suspended from the Sugar Bowl
whipping that Alabama took from Utah for contact
with an agent and then he goes AWOL from the
Scouting Combine. He shows up at his campus
workout with a reported entourage present of 30
family members, three trainers, a publicist and his
agent and he was driving a 2009 Cadillac Escalade
ESV, easily a $70,000+ vehicle with no bling
added. He has a body that looks like it has seen
way more chicken fried steak, than barbells and he
put 225 pounds up a whopping 19 times.
Taken individually these things would not cause
too much concern because they are typically
known as the “mistakes of youth.” Taken
collectively, they scare the hell out of me and if I
am an owner about to guarantee this kid $25
million; they should cause me to run like hell. The
19 reps on the bench press and the body by Fat
Albert are the items that scare me the most. He
has been a three year starter at an SEC school,
who by all accounts is the most talented left tackle
in the draft. How can you go to school for three
years, claim to want to be the best offensive
lineman of all time as he did in a recent interview
and not find a way to get strong enough to out lift a
kicker (David Buehler from USC did 25 reps). If he
did not find the time to get in shape before the
biggest job interview he will ever have, what will
happen when he has $25 million in the bank.
The good news for Andre Smith fans is with that
entourage he won’t have the money for very long,
so the second team he signs with may get a very
talented AND motivated player. If he gets picked in
the first round, unless it is late, he will probably
bust. We have seen examples where sliding on
draft day has helped players, Randy Moss being
an excellent example. When the first AFATT mock
draft is revealed, Andre Smith will get a second
round grade, but we will probably have him going
to Cincinnati (they are still the Bungals, after all).
Not because he is a second round talent, but
because that might be the only way to save him
from himself (and his entourage). The final mock
will put him where he belongs.
The next player we want to take a closer look at is
Matthew Stafford. My concerns here are mostly
coming from the gut without many hard facts to
back it up. It starts with family life. He is from one
of the richest suburbs in Dallas, maybe in the
country, so money should not change his outlook
too much. He won a state championship in high
school at a school made famous by Doak Walker
and Bobby Layne, but which has struggled in the
last 30-40 years to win it all. He is a three year
starter at Georgia (which he chose because his
high school girlfriend was attending) and has the
good looks and rocket arm and a book full of
statistics. So, what is not to like you might ask?
What will happen if his so far perfect life gets
smacked in the face and he faces Joey Harrington-
like pressure in Detroit? Will he pull a Tim Couch-
like crying fit on camera when confronted by
reporters? He has responded well in pressure
games and did not crater under the pre-season top
ranking in 2008, but I am still not sold. More
research is needed before I make the call here, but
let’s just say my radar is up. More reviews to
come…
Because AFATT Says So….
| 2009 Mock NFL Draft 1.0 |
April 5, 2009