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The Next Great Innovation
Joe Tarell, February 9, 2008
It is interesting to watch the
evolutions that football has gone
through over the years. There are
some very smart innovators and
they have taken this game to places
that seemed unimaginable just few
short years before their new wrinkles
became successful and then
eventually became commonplace.
The Zone-blitz is a recent innovation
that is so common today that it is
now just another wrinkle thrown into
a defensive game plan.
Over the years we saw things that
seemed to work in lower levels that
never caught on in the NFL or simply
vanished over time. The Run and
Shoot, the Spread, the 3-3-5
defense and the Single Wing have
all had their day in the sun, but are
not seen the NFL today. Another
example, the wishbone triple option
offense, ruled college football in the
70’s. The timing and the execution
required, when practiced to
perfection, meant that you could run
the same play literally dozens of
times per game and stopping it was
nearly impossible. Now, one thing
that came out of that offense that
does not get near as much attention
(line play never does) was the Zone-
blocking schemes that were required
to run it well.
With Zone-blocking, the offensive
line tries to control a zone where the
play is run and many times slants
toward the direction the play is
running and picks up the first
defender that they encounter with
simple guidelines like inside gap
first, head up second and linebacker
third. The triple option meant that
the play could be run over the guard
if the fullback was given the ball, off-
tackle if the quarterback kept it, or
around the end if it was pitched.
The offensive linemen never knew
where the play was going so Man-
blocking rules designed to open up
a specific hole to run through could
not be applied. These zone-
blocking techniques are used today
in many organizations, though the
Wishbone has not fared as well.
So, enough of the history lessons,
let’s talk about the next great
innovation. It is not so much an
innovation as it is an evolution. This
metamorphosis I believe we will see
next is borne out of several other
changes that are now growing very
quickly. The Spread offense and all
of its derivatives are changing the
game, but really the emphasis on
speed is where the changes are
coming from and why the next great
change is going to happen on the
offensive line. Smaller, faster
offensive lineman will allow the
Spread offense and the derivatives
to prosper moving forward as West
Virginia has done using the Spread
as primarily a running offense. If
you watched the Super Bowl, then
you saw the need for this evolution
taking shape. The defensive
linemen of the New York Giants are
the offensive linemen of the future
and these smaller, quicker linemen
will be using modified versions of
these Zone-blocking schemes.
The greatest offensive team in the
history of the NFL was shut down
(14 points was 22 below their
average) because of the speed of
the defensive line, coupled with their
strength, allowed the defense to
match up with the speed outside for
the Patriots and still apply pressure.
Now picture the Spread offense in all
its glory, four and five receivers on
every snap, moving the ball all over
the field, using the short pass as the
running game. The way to beat this
offense is with pressure. Pressure
brought by four down linemen or
less because you need the other
seven to cover the six eligible
receivers on offense. So how do
you stop the pressure? Run the
ball, run screens, run play-action, all
these things beat a strong pass
rush. Well, in the case of the Super
Bowl, many analysts wondered why
the Patriots did not get Brady
outside the pocket. And many of
those same analysts thought it was
because of Brady’s ankle.
Nonsense!
They did not move Brady in that
game and they did not move Brady
much all year because they do not
have enough speed and agility in
the offensive line to handle the
speed of Justin Tuck (DE playing
DT), Osi Umenyiora and Michael
Strahan. Earlier in the year, before
injuries took him out, Mathias
Kiwanuka played as the fourth DE,
playing DT in passing situations.
There is no way for the average
offensive lineman to block these
guys on obvious passing downs
because they can’t keep up with the
speed. The trade-off comes when
the offense plays power football and
265 pound defensive ends can’t
hold up when bludgeoned by 325
pound offensive lineman. Guess
what, you can’t win in the NFL if all
you have is a power running game.
The new Spread offense doesn’t
care about power football because
they throw four yard slants and quick
outs all day instead of running dive
plays – if they can stop that pass
rush.
Look, the Spread offense is here to
stay. The Patriots ran out of the
shotgun on more than 50% of their
plays this year and set the NFL
scoring record. The problem with
the Spread or the derivatives of it is
the inability of the offensive line to
match up with the speed on
defense. It is a cat and mouse game
in today’s NFL, the offense
innovates, the defenses catch up,
the defense innovates, the offenses
catch up. Give me 280 pound
offensive linemen that can move
their feet, give me a QB like Brady
who can move his feet, or Vince
Young who can outrun most of your
defenders, move the pocket and get
more creative with the play calling
and you will dominate -- until
someone figures out how to match
up with you. Someone is going to
figure out how to build a line like Alex
Gibbs had tried to do for the
Broncos, only faster and more
athletic, with an offensive signal
caller that is not afraid to stretch the
field (sorry Shanahan, but you need
to change your game) and the
Spread offense is going to be a
thing to behold. Mouse Davis will be
laughing at every stinking one of
those coaches that doubted him.
It is the last frontier of player
development, short of putting
athletes at the kicking positions
(hello Sammy Baugh – way ahead of
his time) or just quitting all this
punting B.S. that has become every
scared coach’s favorite play. Teams
dedicated to the Spread like Texas
Tech and Mike Leach almost never
punt anyway. Speed on the
offensive line is the next great
innovation, look for it in the 2008
NFL Draft. You know why?
Because AFATT says so…
Joe Tarell, February 9, 2008
It is interesting to watch the
evolutions that football has gone
through over the years. There are
some very smart innovators and
they have taken this game to places
that seemed unimaginable just few
short years before their new wrinkles
became successful and then
eventually became commonplace.
The Zone-blitz is a recent innovation
that is so common today that it is
now just another wrinkle thrown into
a defensive game plan.
Over the years we saw things that
seemed to work in lower levels that
never caught on in the NFL or simply
vanished over time. The Run and
Shoot, the Spread, the 3-3-5
defense and the Single Wing have
all had their day in the sun, but are
not seen the NFL today. Another
example, the wishbone triple option
offense, ruled college football in the
70’s. The timing and the execution
required, when practiced to
perfection, meant that you could run
the same play literally dozens of
times per game and stopping it was
nearly impossible. Now, one thing
that came out of that offense that
does not get near as much attention
(line play never does) was the Zone-
blocking schemes that were required
to run it well.
With Zone-blocking, the offensive
line tries to control a zone where the
play is run and many times slants
toward the direction the play is
running and picks up the first
defender that they encounter with
simple guidelines like inside gap
first, head up second and linebacker
third. The triple option meant that
the play could be run over the guard
if the fullback was given the ball, off-
tackle if the quarterback kept it, or
around the end if it was pitched.
The offensive linemen never knew
where the play was going so Man-
blocking rules designed to open up
a specific hole to run through could
not be applied. These zone-
blocking techniques are used today
in many organizations, though the
Wishbone has not fared as well.
So, enough of the history lessons,
let’s talk about the next great
innovation. It is not so much an
innovation as it is an evolution. This
metamorphosis I believe we will see
next is borne out of several other
changes that are now growing very
quickly. The Spread offense and all
of its derivatives are changing the
game, but really the emphasis on
speed is where the changes are
coming from and why the next great
change is going to happen on the
offensive line. Smaller, faster
offensive lineman will allow the
Spread offense and the derivatives
to prosper moving forward as West
Virginia has done using the Spread
as primarily a running offense. If
you watched the Super Bowl, then
you saw the need for this evolution
taking shape. The defensive
linemen of the New York Giants are
the offensive linemen of the future
and these smaller, quicker linemen
will be using modified versions of
these Zone-blocking schemes.
The greatest offensive team in the
history of the NFL was shut down
(14 points was 22 below their
average) because of the speed of
the defensive line, coupled with their
strength, allowed the defense to
match up with the speed outside for
the Patriots and still apply pressure.
Now picture the Spread offense in all
its glory, four and five receivers on
every snap, moving the ball all over
the field, using the short pass as the
running game. The way to beat this
offense is with pressure. Pressure
brought by four down linemen or
less because you need the other
seven to cover the six eligible
receivers on offense. So how do
you stop the pressure? Run the
ball, run screens, run play-action, all
these things beat a strong pass
rush. Well, in the case of the Super
Bowl, many analysts wondered why
the Patriots did not get Brady
outside the pocket. And many of
those same analysts thought it was
because of Brady’s ankle.
Nonsense!
They did not move Brady in that
game and they did not move Brady
much all year because they do not
have enough speed and agility in
the offensive line to handle the
speed of Justin Tuck (DE playing
DT), Osi Umenyiora and Michael
Strahan. Earlier in the year, before
injuries took him out, Mathias
Kiwanuka played as the fourth DE,
playing DT in passing situations.
There is no way for the average
offensive lineman to block these
guys on obvious passing downs
because they can’t keep up with the
speed. The trade-off comes when
the offense plays power football and
265 pound defensive ends can’t
hold up when bludgeoned by 325
pound offensive lineman. Guess
what, you can’t win in the NFL if all
you have is a power running game.
The new Spread offense doesn’t
care about power football because
they throw four yard slants and quick
outs all day instead of running dive
plays – if they can stop that pass
rush.
Look, the Spread offense is here to
stay. The Patriots ran out of the
shotgun on more than 50% of their
plays this year and set the NFL
scoring record. The problem with
the Spread or the derivatives of it is
the inability of the offensive line to
match up with the speed on
defense. It is a cat and mouse game
in today’s NFL, the offense
innovates, the defenses catch up,
the defense innovates, the offenses
catch up. Give me 280 pound
offensive linemen that can move
their feet, give me a QB like Brady
who can move his feet, or Vince
Young who can outrun most of your
defenders, move the pocket and get
more creative with the play calling
and you will dominate -- until
someone figures out how to match
up with you. Someone is going to
figure out how to build a line like Alex
Gibbs had tried to do for the
Broncos, only faster and more
athletic, with an offensive signal
caller that is not afraid to stretch the
field (sorry Shanahan, but you need
to change your game) and the
Spread offense is going to be a
thing to behold. Mouse Davis will be
laughing at every stinking one of
those coaches that doubted him.
It is the last frontier of player
development, short of putting
athletes at the kicking positions
(hello Sammy Baugh – way ahead of
his time) or just quitting all this
punting B.S. that has become every
scared coach’s favorite play. Teams
dedicated to the Spread like Texas
Tech and Mike Leach almost never
punt anyway. Speed on the
offensive line is the next great
innovation, look for it in the 2008
NFL Draft. You know why?
Because AFATT says so…
| 2008 NFL Draft Preparations in Full Swing |
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The Business of the NFL
Rick Tarell, March 7, 2008
The old cliché “you’re damned if
you do, and damned if you don’t”
seems to apply to the many NFL
teams, and the Eagles are surely
not immune. Case in point is the
recent signing of Asante Samuel;
the high profile, high priced CB
from the AFC Champs. We in the
fan base clamor for free agency
action to fill the positions known to
be weaknesses or areas in need of
improvement. Knowledgeable fans
know their team’s needs, see great
players out there becoming free
agents, and wonder why our team
doesn’t grab them. This happens
every year and often a chill settles
over the off season excitement as
some other team gets these guys
that we are sure we need so badly.
But what goes unsaid is that when
you do pull the trigger on these
high profile players, you chance
crippling your future ability to
manage the cap, keep veterans,
and resign and pay loyal and
productive players just coming into
their own. So doing the free agent
thing is a dangerous gamble. To
understand this one must know a
little bit about the intricacies of the
whole “business side” of the NFL.
The salary cap forces teams to be
very selective in how they go about
adding quality via free agency.
Their impact must be immediate
and there must be cash available
under the cap. Balancing
guaranteed bonus dollars and non-
guaranteed salary money from
these free-agent contracts is tricky.
Most teams prefer to pay their star
players with low salaries and big
bonuses, since these are prorated
over the life of the contract as they
count toward the yearly salary cap.
This works best in the contracts
early years and when the salary
amounts are the league minimums,
as most tend to be…since that is
the trade off the player and his
agent accepts to get that big chunk
of dough guaranteed right away
whether he gets hurt or not, during
the season or in training camp. But
as the years pass, so does the
advantage of pro-rating that
signing bonus and it starts
counting more and more against
the team’s cap space. If not
managed well, the team now can’t
keep or sign new free agents nor
pay their developing talent once
they become free agents and all of
sudden you are in the position that
say SF 49’ers were in and they
had to virtually gut their
team…ending up with only 2 wins
in 2004. Interestingly enough that
was the year the Eagles took
advantage of the market and got
the malignant TO. It worked for a
while but the year after TO left, we
were in the same (albeit not as
severe) boat as the 49’ers but
went 6-10. Many reasons for that
season’s results but the cap issue
was surely one of them. “Large
signing bonuses can be debilitating
to a franchise when players leave
the team before the end of their
contracts, whether through waiver,
trade or retirement, because the
total unpaid portion of the signing
bonus "accelerates" and is
counted in the next season's cap,
creating "dead money." says Dave
Katz, of Harvard Law School.
“Teams can avoid excessive dead
money by guaranteeing larger
salaries rather than huge signing
bonuses, but franchises have
historically refused to do so.
Guaranteed salaries have the
benefit of spreading cap charges
over the life of the contract -
salaries are charged against the
cap in the year paid - without the
potential for acceleration.
Furthermore, when teams have
smaller cap charges for releasing
players, they acquire greater
flexibility to rid the payroll of
excessively large contracts and
sign more valuable players.
Therefore, NFL teams should shift
much of the signing bonuses into
larger guaranteed salaries to
retain cap flexibility in the future.”
Okay, that is one way to avoid the
problem, but will it deter a team in
dire need from paying too much for
a star they think they must
have…not! And fans want them to
get those players! If you don’t,
then your organization is perceived
as not trying to do enough to win
and you get disgruntled players
who won’t stay, jump at the chance
to go elsewhere or become pariahs
while “waiting out” their contracts. I
have always found it fascinating
how a player seems to play so
much better the year before he
becomes a free agent. Well, the
system sets it up that way! It leads
to this – build your team through
the draft and be very, very
selective on the free agents you
get. As a fan I just don’t like it. As a
student of football, I get it! For the
good of the organization and future
consistency, make sure the players
have long term contracts with high
salaries and lower bonuses, build
from within and work hardest on
the draft. It’s why AFATT believes
so strongly in things like IME and
the Bustometer. Because if you
don’t, well “you’ll be damned if you
do and damned if you don’t.” Why,
‘cause AFATT says so.
Rick Tarell, March 7, 2008
The old cliché “you’re damned if
you do, and damned if you don’t”
seems to apply to the many NFL
teams, and the Eagles are surely
not immune. Case in point is the
recent signing of Asante Samuel;
the high profile, high priced CB
from the AFC Champs. We in the
fan base clamor for free agency
action to fill the positions known to
be weaknesses or areas in need of
improvement. Knowledgeable fans
know their team’s needs, see great
players out there becoming free
agents, and wonder why our team
doesn’t grab them. This happens
every year and often a chill settles
over the off season excitement as
some other team gets these guys
that we are sure we need so badly.
But what goes unsaid is that when
you do pull the trigger on these
high profile players, you chance
crippling your future ability to
manage the cap, keep veterans,
and resign and pay loyal and
productive players just coming into
their own. So doing the free agent
thing is a dangerous gamble. To
understand this one must know a
little bit about the intricacies of the
whole “business side” of the NFL.
The salary cap forces teams to be
very selective in how they go about
adding quality via free agency.
Their impact must be immediate
and there must be cash available
under the cap. Balancing
guaranteed bonus dollars and non-
guaranteed salary money from
these free-agent contracts is tricky.
Most teams prefer to pay their star
players with low salaries and big
bonuses, since these are prorated
over the life of the contract as they
count toward the yearly salary cap.
This works best in the contracts
early years and when the salary
amounts are the league minimums,
as most tend to be…since that is
the trade off the player and his
agent accepts to get that big chunk
of dough guaranteed right away
whether he gets hurt or not, during
the season or in training camp. But
as the years pass, so does the
advantage of pro-rating that
signing bonus and it starts
counting more and more against
the team’s cap space. If not
managed well, the team now can’t
keep or sign new free agents nor
pay their developing talent once
they become free agents and all of
sudden you are in the position that
say SF 49’ers were in and they
had to virtually gut their
team…ending up with only 2 wins
in 2004. Interestingly enough that
was the year the Eagles took
advantage of the market and got
the malignant TO. It worked for a
while but the year after TO left, we
were in the same (albeit not as
severe) boat as the 49’ers but
went 6-10. Many reasons for that
season’s results but the cap issue
was surely one of them. “Large
signing bonuses can be debilitating
to a franchise when players leave
the team before the end of their
contracts, whether through waiver,
trade or retirement, because the
total unpaid portion of the signing
bonus "accelerates" and is
counted in the next season's cap,
creating "dead money." says Dave
Katz, of Harvard Law School.
“Teams can avoid excessive dead
money by guaranteeing larger
salaries rather than huge signing
bonuses, but franchises have
historically refused to do so.
Guaranteed salaries have the
benefit of spreading cap charges
over the life of the contract -
salaries are charged against the
cap in the year paid - without the
potential for acceleration.
Furthermore, when teams have
smaller cap charges for releasing
players, they acquire greater
flexibility to rid the payroll of
excessively large contracts and
sign more valuable players.
Therefore, NFL teams should shift
much of the signing bonuses into
larger guaranteed salaries to
retain cap flexibility in the future.”
Okay, that is one way to avoid the
problem, but will it deter a team in
dire need from paying too much for
a star they think they must
have…not! And fans want them to
get those players! If you don’t,
then your organization is perceived
as not trying to do enough to win
and you get disgruntled players
who won’t stay, jump at the chance
to go elsewhere or become pariahs
while “waiting out” their contracts. I
have always found it fascinating
how a player seems to play so
much better the year before he
becomes a free agent. Well, the
system sets it up that way! It leads
to this – build your team through
the draft and be very, very
selective on the free agents you
get. As a fan I just don’t like it. As a
student of football, I get it! For the
good of the organization and future
consistency, make sure the players
have long term contracts with high
salaries and lower bonuses, build
from within and work hardest on
the draft. It’s why AFATT believes
so strongly in things like IME and
the Bustometer. Because if you
don’t, well “you’ll be damned if you
do and damned if you don’t.” Why,
‘cause AFATT says so.
Has the NFL opened
Pandora’s Box?
Patrick Tarell, April 4, 2008
By eliminating the force out rule,
the NFL is on the wrong path. It
seems this rule change was
brought about to remove the
subjectivity created when a referee
is required to make a judgment call
on whether a receiver is forced out
by contact or would have been
carried out of bounds by the
momentum of the play. In truth, this
is no easy call because the referee
has no Orwellian time machine that
can repeat the play without those
pesky defensive backs hammering
a wide receiver while he flies
defenselessly through the air. But
what can fans expect to see with
this rule change?
We at AFATT believe the sideline
will now become a no-fly-zone. The
force out call usually occurs when a
WR is close to the sideline and has
left his feet to make a dramatic
catch in the face of one or two DBs
intent on taking his head off. The
elimination of the rule will cause the
WRs to rethink the wisdom of
leaping into the danger zone when
a DB must simply push him out of
bounds to obtain a no-catch.
Sideline catches are some of the
most compelling plays in the game
as the QB throws the ball
specifically high and away from the
defense to avoid throwing an
interception. The receiver is
required to gain control of the ball
and bring both feet down while
being relentlessly pursued by hard
charging DBs. What is the risk and
reward here? Why take the chance
of exposing your body when the
reward is no longer worth the risk?
The judgment aspect of the call has
been eliminated to stifle the whiny
coaches and owners who think the
game should be completely
antiseptic and without subjectivity.
But what has occurred and
continues to occur is the elimination
of the human aspect of referring a
game. With replay and red flags we
have seen the game evolve into a
made for television event where
human judgment is no longer
acceptable and the immaculate
reception would have never
happened. Some of the greatest
plays in the history of the game
would have been rendered moot by
the ever advancing technology and
ridiculous petty coaches and
owners who no longer believe
human judgment plays a part in our
great sport.
I suppose the next innovation will
be the elimination of side judges for
a set of precisely aimed cameras
on gantries that call encroachment
penalties... Have we gone too far?
Has the game lost its precious
youth for the perceived duplicity of
human judgment? Has the sideline
circus catch gone the way of the
leather helmet? Sideline catches
have been some of the most
exciting plays in the game. They
have changed outcomes, they have
kept drives alive in the waning
seconds, made heroes or goats
and have given fans the greatest
joy or the most anguish. By taking
this play from the game we have
yet again watered down our game
for the sake of technology that
clearly shows every detail in super
duper slow-mo. Will referees soon
be eliminated completely from the
game? It certainly seems to be the
direction it is headed.
How about a little sanity in the
decision making process? What
seems like a simple change on the
surface could have an
overwhelming impact on the
outcome of games and on the plays
that have made this game so great.
There is a solution and it should
have been thought out before this
change was implemented. Go to
the college rule requiring only one
foot in bounds. Think of what this
could open up in the game, more
dramatic catches, more incredible
touchdown receptions in the back
of the endzone and the NFL’s
constant quest for more scoring.
Changing that rule would give back
the sidelines which have now been
rendered no-man’s-land by the
foolish owners whose narrow
minded view of our great sport has
once again seen it poured over with
a bottle of peroxide.
Leave the game alone, because
AFATT says so.
Pandora’s Box?
Patrick Tarell, April 4, 2008
By eliminating the force out rule,
the NFL is on the wrong path. It
seems this rule change was
brought about to remove the
subjectivity created when a referee
is required to make a judgment call
on whether a receiver is forced out
by contact or would have been
carried out of bounds by the
momentum of the play. In truth, this
is no easy call because the referee
has no Orwellian time machine that
can repeat the play without those
pesky defensive backs hammering
a wide receiver while he flies
defenselessly through the air. But
what can fans expect to see with
this rule change?
We at AFATT believe the sideline
will now become a no-fly-zone. The
force out call usually occurs when a
WR is close to the sideline and has
left his feet to make a dramatic
catch in the face of one or two DBs
intent on taking his head off. The
elimination of the rule will cause the
WRs to rethink the wisdom of
leaping into the danger zone when
a DB must simply push him out of
bounds to obtain a no-catch.
Sideline catches are some of the
most compelling plays in the game
as the QB throws the ball
specifically high and away from the
defense to avoid throwing an
interception. The receiver is
required to gain control of the ball
and bring both feet down while
being relentlessly pursued by hard
charging DBs. What is the risk and
reward here? Why take the chance
of exposing your body when the
reward is no longer worth the risk?
The judgment aspect of the call has
been eliminated to stifle the whiny
coaches and owners who think the
game should be completely
antiseptic and without subjectivity.
But what has occurred and
continues to occur is the elimination
of the human aspect of referring a
game. With replay and red flags we
have seen the game evolve into a
made for television event where
human judgment is no longer
acceptable and the immaculate
reception would have never
happened. Some of the greatest
plays in the history of the game
would have been rendered moot by
the ever advancing technology and
ridiculous petty coaches and
owners who no longer believe
human judgment plays a part in our
great sport.
I suppose the next innovation will
be the elimination of side judges for
a set of precisely aimed cameras
on gantries that call encroachment
penalties... Have we gone too far?
Has the game lost its precious
youth for the perceived duplicity of
human judgment? Has the sideline
circus catch gone the way of the
leather helmet? Sideline catches
have been some of the most
exciting plays in the game. They
have changed outcomes, they have
kept drives alive in the waning
seconds, made heroes or goats
and have given fans the greatest
joy or the most anguish. By taking
this play from the game we have
yet again watered down our game
for the sake of technology that
clearly shows every detail in super
duper slow-mo. Will referees soon
be eliminated completely from the
game? It certainly seems to be the
direction it is headed.
How about a little sanity in the
decision making process? What
seems like a simple change on the
surface could have an
overwhelming impact on the
outcome of games and on the plays
that have made this game so great.
There is a solution and it should
have been thought out before this
change was implemented. Go to
the college rule requiring only one
foot in bounds. Think of what this
could open up in the game, more
dramatic catches, more incredible
touchdown receptions in the back
of the endzone and the NFL’s
constant quest for more scoring.
Changing that rule would give back
the sidelines which have now been
rendered no-man’s-land by the
foolish owners whose narrow
minded view of our great sport has
once again seen it poured over with
a bottle of peroxide.
Leave the game alone, because
AFATT says so.
2008 Redskins Forecast
Joe Tarell, August 20, 2008
It is always sunny when training camp opens with clear skies looming on the horizon. In 2007 the sunny weather
was replaced quickly by a string of injuries that left it dark and gloomy right up to the death of Sean Taylor (who
was injured at the time or would not have even been in the house) when the Redskins turned their gloom loose
on their opponents. Will 2008 turn out differently? Most prognosticators will tell you they definitely see a different
result for this year, but probably not the way the Redskin fans want to see it.
Is a longer playoff run in the cards this year or a drop to the bottom of the division? Remember in the hyper-
competitive NFC East, two games separated the eventual Super Bowl champs from last place so you don’t have
to slip much or climb much to see a huge change of fortunes. With the Giants and Eli now boasting confidence to
go with their talent and the Cowboys adding still more volatile, but talented players this off season, the Redskins
and the Eagles would seem to be slugging it out for last place. And since the Eagles are not breaking in a rookie
head coach with no coordinator experience, they are the easy the choice for many to challenge Dallas and New
York.
So fourth place in the division is the expectation going in even though the Redskins return 21 of 22 starters from
a playoff team and the one loss is Sean Taylor, who gone for the last eight games last year. Let’s review why that
prediction makes sense. Jim Zorn has never even called plays in an NFL game let alone been a head coach.
Greg Williams is gone as defensive coordinator as well. Jason Campbell is widely viewed as the fourth best QB in
the division and is still unproven going into his fourth season and this team’s ability to score touchdowns is a
major stumbling block. There is no “rally for Sean” momentum to carry this team. The defense is old and lacks
playmakers.
For balance, why not review the positives that make this a team that can be a playoff force this year. Jason
Taylor is a key acquisition to bolster a weak pass rush that was really the only weakness on this defense last
year. Injuries last year hit the offensive line and the cornerbacks in waves so that third and fourth stringers were
starting. If those can be avoided, the depth and talent upgrades considerably. The running game is one of the
best in the NFL with two dynamic runners and a veteran offensive line that now also has depth thanks to the
injuries last year giving plenty of playing time to the back-ups. The receiving corps should be greatly improved
with the three rookie second round picks. Greg Blache is a returning coach going from the defensive line to the
coordinator position so the defensive scheme is not changing and the players like and respect him as a coach.
Now let’s take those negative and see if there is an answer for each of them. Jim Zorn is going to be questioned
right up until they start winning. He has never dealt with a 2 minute drill, never made hard decisions about
players that he may like, but need to be replaced, never tried to rally a team after a poor start. There are
indications that he was a good choice and will be a good head coach based on how he has prepared this off-
season and the way training camp has gone, but only time will really answer that one. Greg Williams will not be
missed as much as people think. He had a good scheme, but players were getting a little tired of his voice as
they do many times in the NFL. The scheme is still in place, with fresh voices and ideas, so this seemed to be a
minimal concern unless Blache can’t call defenses or build effective game plans, and again, only time will answer
that question.
Let’s talk about Jason Campbell and the offense together. The new wide receivers and the new scheme should
eliminate the touchdown scoring issue. Joe Gibbs was way too conservative in the red zone and because of the
small receivers, the only go-to-guy was Chris Cooley, who was too easy to cover as the only real threat. Malcolm
Kelly, Devin Thomas and Fred Davis are big targets that can score. The West Coast offense also uses the pass
to set up the run more than Gibbs and Saunders were willing to do so the running game should not suffer, though
Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts will need to be both more patient and more explosive when they get their chances.
An experienced, healthy offensive line will also help this issue. Now, will all this make Jason Campbell a better
QB? I believe it will, but again, only time will tell. He had a great season his last year at Auburn running the West
Coast system and he has taken the coaching of Zorn very well. His release his quicker, his tempo is faster and
he understand the value of accuracy. He does not seem to get rattled in pressure situations and his teammates
believe in him, so the makings are there for a very good quarterback. He seems brittle so he must avoid injury
and get over the tendency that many strong-armed quarterbacks have to try and fit balls where they should not
be thrown. If he does those things and lets the talent around him do their jobs, they can be a really good offense.
I guess it is now time to give you my prediction. But it will have to wait. With the way the injuries hit last year, I
want to wait until September 4th before making my pick. The Redskins will be competitive in every game and will
surprise some people. I also believe that the Giants and Cowboys will falter. The Eagles are the team that
scares me the most. This division is going to be another slugfest... because AFATT Says So!
Joe Tarell, August 20, 2008
It is always sunny when training camp opens with clear skies looming on the horizon. In 2007 the sunny weather
was replaced quickly by a string of injuries that left it dark and gloomy right up to the death of Sean Taylor (who
was injured at the time or would not have even been in the house) when the Redskins turned their gloom loose
on their opponents. Will 2008 turn out differently? Most prognosticators will tell you they definitely see a different
result for this year, but probably not the way the Redskin fans want to see it.
Is a longer playoff run in the cards this year or a drop to the bottom of the division? Remember in the hyper-
competitive NFC East, two games separated the eventual Super Bowl champs from last place so you don’t have
to slip much or climb much to see a huge change of fortunes. With the Giants and Eli now boasting confidence to
go with their talent and the Cowboys adding still more volatile, but talented players this off season, the Redskins
and the Eagles would seem to be slugging it out for last place. And since the Eagles are not breaking in a rookie
head coach with no coordinator experience, they are the easy the choice for many to challenge Dallas and New
York.
So fourth place in the division is the expectation going in even though the Redskins return 21 of 22 starters from
a playoff team and the one loss is Sean Taylor, who gone for the last eight games last year. Let’s review why that
prediction makes sense. Jim Zorn has never even called plays in an NFL game let alone been a head coach.
Greg Williams is gone as defensive coordinator as well. Jason Campbell is widely viewed as the fourth best QB in
the division and is still unproven going into his fourth season and this team’s ability to score touchdowns is a
major stumbling block. There is no “rally for Sean” momentum to carry this team. The defense is old and lacks
playmakers.
For balance, why not review the positives that make this a team that can be a playoff force this year. Jason
Taylor is a key acquisition to bolster a weak pass rush that was really the only weakness on this defense last
year. Injuries last year hit the offensive line and the cornerbacks in waves so that third and fourth stringers were
starting. If those can be avoided, the depth and talent upgrades considerably. The running game is one of the
best in the NFL with two dynamic runners and a veteran offensive line that now also has depth thanks to the
injuries last year giving plenty of playing time to the back-ups. The receiving corps should be greatly improved
with the three rookie second round picks. Greg Blache is a returning coach going from the defensive line to the
coordinator position so the defensive scheme is not changing and the players like and respect him as a coach.
Now let’s take those negative and see if there is an answer for each of them. Jim Zorn is going to be questioned
right up until they start winning. He has never dealt with a 2 minute drill, never made hard decisions about
players that he may like, but need to be replaced, never tried to rally a team after a poor start. There are
indications that he was a good choice and will be a good head coach based on how he has prepared this off-
season and the way training camp has gone, but only time will really answer that one. Greg Williams will not be
missed as much as people think. He had a good scheme, but players were getting a little tired of his voice as
they do many times in the NFL. The scheme is still in place, with fresh voices and ideas, so this seemed to be a
minimal concern unless Blache can’t call defenses or build effective game plans, and again, only time will answer
that question.
Let’s talk about Jason Campbell and the offense together. The new wide receivers and the new scheme should
eliminate the touchdown scoring issue. Joe Gibbs was way too conservative in the red zone and because of the
small receivers, the only go-to-guy was Chris Cooley, who was too easy to cover as the only real threat. Malcolm
Kelly, Devin Thomas and Fred Davis are big targets that can score. The West Coast offense also uses the pass
to set up the run more than Gibbs and Saunders were willing to do so the running game should not suffer, though
Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts will need to be both more patient and more explosive when they get their chances.
An experienced, healthy offensive line will also help this issue. Now, will all this make Jason Campbell a better
QB? I believe it will, but again, only time will tell. He had a great season his last year at Auburn running the West
Coast system and he has taken the coaching of Zorn very well. His release his quicker, his tempo is faster and
he understand the value of accuracy. He does not seem to get rattled in pressure situations and his teammates
believe in him, so the makings are there for a very good quarterback. He seems brittle so he must avoid injury
and get over the tendency that many strong-armed quarterbacks have to try and fit balls where they should not
be thrown. If he does those things and lets the talent around him do their jobs, they can be a really good offense.
I guess it is now time to give you my prediction. But it will have to wait. With the way the injuries hit last year, I
want to wait until September 4th before making my pick. The Redskins will be competitive in every game and will
surprise some people. I also believe that the Giants and Cowboys will falter. The Eagles are the team that
scares me the most. This division is going to be another slugfest... because AFATT Says So!