2008 NFL Draft Information, Mock Draft, 2007 NFL Draft Reviews, NFL Draft player rankings
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2008 NFL Draft Information, Mock Draft, 2007 NFL Draft Reviews, NFL Draft player rankings
2008 NFL Draft Information, Mock Draft, 2007 NFL Draft Reviews, NFL Draft player rankings
2008 NFL Draft Information, Mock Draft, 2007 NFL Draft Reviews, NFL Draft player rankings
Redskins Plan for Handling Leadership
Concerns

Joe Tarell, April 4, 2010

With the announcement of the contract for “Fast” Willie
Parker, the Redskins signed a second veteran running back
after releasing most of their backups earlier in the off
season.  With Larry Johnson already in the fold and both
signings coming with the proclamation that there will be an
open competition at the running back position, is this the end
of the Clinton Portis era?  More likely, it is simply the end of
the Clinton Portis “untouchable Diva era.”

There has been a long held belief at AFATT that the biggest
problem the Redskins had was the inmates running the
asylum.  There has been the wrong kind of player leadership
in that locker room and it starts with Portis.  Since he is owed
a guaranteed $7 million, cutting Portis to solve that problem
was not viewed as an option by management.  We believe
that Mike Shanahan may have decided to solve the problem
by making Portis fight for his job.  Shanahan may be telling
Portis, “if you are busy trying to keep your starting job you
may have less time to cause strife.”

The obvious next question is whether Jason Campbell is
willing and able to step up and take over the team.  Thanks to
Bruce Allen and company, we don’t know.  And that’s the way
it should be with three weeks to go before the draft.  There is
no sense tipping your hand.  AFATT can see Campbell
staying and playing very well with the right kind of leadership
around him and a solid offensive line.  That O-line is the
biggest question mark on this team and one that has gotten
very little attention.

Shanahan has historically had smaller, quicker, zone blocking
lines and believes in a one cut style of running game.  Of
course, this philosophy is a product of Alex Gibbs, who was
the Broncos offensive line coach during the Super Bowl
winning days of the late 90’s.  Gibbs taught the cut blocking
scheme that many opponents found unnerving but always
created creases for an ever changing array of 1,000 yard
rushers.   It does not appear that Chris Foerster, the new O-
line coach is a Gibbs disciple so it should be interesting what
direction they go.  Other than Casey Rabach, none of the
current starting offensive lineman fit the Gibbs’ mold.  They
need at least one more starter quality lineman on that roster,
preferably a left tackle.

The talent level in Washington has never really been the
problem.  Injuries, mismanaged rosters and poor team
leadership have been the biggest reasons why the team has
failed.  The leadership issues start at the top and this is why a
diverse group of coaches have failed to change that
dynamic.  If Dan Snyder really gets out of the way and let’s
Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan run things, it might work this
time.  Vinny Cerrato did a terrible job of managing the roster.  
Signing players the team did not need and ignoring areas of
tremendous need led to strength in one area while being
weak in many others.  All these factors came to a head last
year, when they hung Jason Campbell out to dry while publicly
chasing Cutler and Sanchez, and there was no way to reel
him back in and make him the leader of that football team.

This is why the team performed so much better on offense,
even after all the injuries on the offensive line, when Portis
was removed from the mix after the concussion.  The
pressure to get Dan Snyder’s golden boy the football
disrupted the entire offensive flow.  Eliminating that dynamic
allowed the offense to blossom.  What Shanahan has done by
declaring that all spots, including QB and RB, are open
competitions, is to change the leadership dynamic.  If Jason
Campbell wins the job, then he is the leader because of his
abilities and not a proclamation.  If Clinton Portis wins the job
then he too is there because of his talent, not because he
has the personal cell phone number of the owner on his
speed dial.  This can change the leadership dynamic and
produce wins.

Because AFATT Says So….
How to Find a Bust – Volume One (updated)

Joe Tarell, February 5, 2010

It would seem with all the analysis being done today and the
freedom of information available on the Internet that NFL
teams should be further along in predicting who will make it
and who will not when they reach the NFL level.  At AFATT we
believe in the old adage, follow the money.  If we can find out
what happens when a 22 year old gets the taste of money for
the first time, we can answer many of the questions that arise
from this annual fishing expedition called the NFL Draft.

Last year we identified some players that we felt might have
the highest propensity to bust.  We hit on some and missed
on others, the book is still out on a few more.  The AFATT
Instant Millionaire Effect, or IME, is designed to look for
players who will fail if they hit the lottery that comes with the
first round of the NFL Draft.  When people are put under
extreme stress or come upon instant success, many times
their true character is revealed.  The adage that character is
built under pressure is incorrect in many eyes, including
these, who believe that it is revealed.  People revert to their
base instincts in these situations and this is why the Marine
Corps believes so strongly in tearing them down and building
them back up.

With this in mind, let’s start the process of analyzing some of
the top talent on many draft boards for 2009.  The easy first
target is Andre Smith, the offensive tackle from Alabama.  
First he gets himself suspended from the Sugar Bowl
whipping that Alabama took from Utah for contact with an
agent and then he goes AWOL from the Scouting Combine.  
He shows up at his campus workout with a reported
entourage present of 30 family members, three trainers, a
publicist and his agent and he was driving a 2009 Cadillac
Escalade ESV, easily a $70,000+ vehicle with no bling
added.  He has a body that looks like it has seen way more
chicken fried steak, than barbells and he put 225 pounds up
a whopping 19 times.

Taken individually these things would not cause too much
concern because they are typically known as the “mistakes of
youth.”  Taken collectively, they scare the hell out of me and if
I am an owner about to guarantee this kid $25 million; they
should cause me to run like hell.  The 19 reps on the bench
press and the body by Fat Albert are the items that scare me
the most.  He has been a three year starter at an SEC school,
who by all accounts is the most talented left tackle in the
draft.  How can you go to school for three years, claim to want
to be the best offensive lineman of all time as he did in a
recent interview and not find a way to get strong enough to
out lift a kicker (David Buehler from USC did 25 reps).  If he
did not find the time to get in shape before the biggest job
interview he will ever have, what will happen when he has $25
million in the bank.

The good news for Andre Smith fans is with that entourage he
won’t have the money for very long, so the second team he
signs with may get a very talented AND motivated player.  If
he gets picked in the first round, unless it is late, he will
probably bust.  We have seen examples where sliding on
draft day has helped players, Randy Moss being an excellent
example.  When the first AFATT mock draft is revealed, Andre
Smith will get a second round grade, but we will probably have
him going to Cincinnati (they are still the Bungals, after all).  
Not because he is a second round talent, but because that
might be the only way to save him from himself (and his
entourage).  The final mock will put him where he belongs.

The above article was written in March 2009 and pretty well
summed up our feelings for Andre.  Well, guess what?  
Cincinnati, as only the Bengals can do, picked him at number
six in the first round and then could not sign him until training
camp was over.  Naturally, ol' Andre was out of shape and got
hurt.  He played in only six games and was not a factor for the
Bengals.  All of this for $21 million guaranteed.  I guess the
IME was right on the money with this one.

Because AFATT Says So….
The Dolphins’ Needs
Patrick Tarell, January 4, 2010

I’m going to take a little time to breakdown the Dolphins’
needs beginning overall and then by position…
More