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Consensus Number One
in the 2008 NFL Draft?
January 19, 2008
There does not appear to be
much consensus yet on the
best player in the 2008 NFL
Draft and that is always bad
news for the team with the first
pick. No one wants to pick
someone who is one of a
handful of top prospects and
then have to pay him top pick
money. This is why trades
happen, but if history is any
indicator, the Dolphins better
not wait until NFL draft day to
make that trade because it
rarely happens.
Hopefully someone will step up
from Senior Bowl and Combine
to distance himself and the
likely candidate appears to be
among Darren McFadden,
Glenn Dorsey and Chris Long,
with Jake Long and Matt Ryan
being long shots. It is tough to
take a RB number one and DT
is a high-risk position that early
in any NFL Draft. The best
thing that could happen for the
Dolphins and frankly for the
NFL is if Matt Ryan really steps
up and establishes himself as
the top pick in the 2008 NFL
Draft. This always creates
excitement.
Think about it; when Peyton
Manning and Ryan Leaf were
considered the top two picks in
the 1995 NFL Draft, the
excitement was palpable. The
same thing happened at the
2004 NFL Draft when Eli
Manning and Rivers were top
four picks. And who can forget
the NFL Draft when Michael
Vick was traded for at the top
of the 1999 NFL Draft.
If no one steps up with a good
trade offer in this NFL Draft
and the Dolphins keep this
pick, drafting the QB makes the
most sense. They are not sold
on John Beck and so if you
have to pay top dollar it might
as well be for a QB. The make
any NFL Draft more exciting
and the 2008 NFL Draft should
be no exception.
in the 2008 NFL Draft?
January 19, 2008
There does not appear to be
much consensus yet on the
best player in the 2008 NFL
Draft and that is always bad
news for the team with the first
pick. No one wants to pick
someone who is one of a
handful of top prospects and
then have to pay him top pick
money. This is why trades
happen, but if history is any
indicator, the Dolphins better
not wait until NFL draft day to
make that trade because it
rarely happens.
Hopefully someone will step up
from Senior Bowl and Combine
to distance himself and the
likely candidate appears to be
among Darren McFadden,
Glenn Dorsey and Chris Long,
with Jake Long and Matt Ryan
being long shots. It is tough to
take a RB number one and DT
is a high-risk position that early
in any NFL Draft. The best
thing that could happen for the
Dolphins and frankly for the
NFL is if Matt Ryan really steps
up and establishes himself as
the top pick in the 2008 NFL
Draft. This always creates
excitement.
Think about it; when Peyton
Manning and Ryan Leaf were
considered the top two picks in
the 1995 NFL Draft, the
excitement was palpable. The
same thing happened at the
2004 NFL Draft when Eli
Manning and Rivers were top
four picks. And who can forget
the NFL Draft when Michael
Vick was traded for at the top
of the 1999 NFL Draft.
If no one steps up with a good
trade offer in this NFL Draft
and the Dolphins keep this
pick, drafting the QB makes the
most sense. They are not sold
on John Beck and so if you
have to pay top dollar it might
as well be for a QB. The make
any NFL Draft more exciting
and the 2008 NFL Draft should
be no exception.
IME and Thoughts from
the Combine
NFL Draft News
Joe Tarell February 25, 2008
As we approach the 2008 NFL
Draft, the NFL Combine in
Indianapolis is one of the
moments we all wait for with
anxious anticipation. It answers
many questions, raises many
more, it reveals and conceals, but
mostly it gives solid numbers to
match to the tape. One thing is
does not answer, but maybe with
better interviewing skills it would,
and that is the IME of a prospect.
At AFATT, we believe the NFL
Draft must be run based on the
IME of first round prospects.
The IME refers to the Instant
Millionaire Effect. What will
happen when they get millions of
dollars dumped in their lap as a
high draft pick in the 2008 NFL
Draft.
Darren McFadden, darling of the
NFL Draft runs a 4.27, a 4.33
officially, in the forty yard dash.
Are you impressed? Not really, I
knew he was fast and shifty and
all those other words used to
describe a highly productive and
talented college RB. He must
answer some other questions
about character, running style,
and durability. I am not sure the
Combine is the place to get those
answers. My jury is still out, but
the IME is saying… let the slide
begin.
Jake Long bangs out 37 reps in
the bench press in preparation
for the NFL Draft. With arms as
long as he has, that is some
serious strength and endurance.
Tall guys with long arms that can
deliver a punch when blocking
and have the strength to hold off
a bull rush become all-pros. His
footwork is solid and more
importantly he seems like a really
level-headed guy during the
interviews, in other words I do not
expect him to react adversely to
the IME. Dolphins take note.
Chris Long is upset with his 34”
vertical leap, says he can do 36.
He is a competitor and anyone
who can get 270 pounds 34” off
the ground from a stand still has
the explosion necessary to play
DE in the NFL. My concern is the
bench press reps were not over
31, so that needs work. But,
again, money should not change
him. He grew up in the same
house as a millionaire dad and
did not become a problem
teenager, so expect him to handle
it well. Dolphins take note once
more.
Jonathan Stewart runs a 4.48
forty yard dash, gets 28 bench
press reps, has a vertical of 36.5”
and has the build at 5’11” and
235 pounds that makes a certain
spindly legged Arkansas back
move down my draft board. In
addition, when I hear his
interviews, he is a really sharp
kid. Humble, thoughtful, soft
spoken and speaks with
determination. I want to know
more about his background to
better understand how he might
handle the IME, but he is climbing
my draft board.
Brian Brohm runs a 4.83 and has
a vertical 30” and who cares? I
don’t, but I like this guy no matter
how high he jumps or how fast he
runs. He seems to have the right
focus and upbringing for a QB in
the NFL. Not quite a Manning
family history but he knows how to
act and he has lived in the
spotlight since being a star early
in high school (three state titles).
The money won’t spoil, the
spotlight will not cause shrinkage,
his arm is NFL ready and the
football mind is superb. He will
climb back up the draft boards he
slipped down the last few months.
Dustin Keller, TE from Purdue is
one to watch. He has been the
highlight of the first few days here
in Indy. He just might become the
next Mike Mamula or maybe he
can actually play. He ran a great
forty yard dash at 4.55, had a
vertical of 38” and even got 26
reps on the bench. Of course he
also excelled at catching the ball
which should matter even more,
but this Combine has become a
numbers game for many. But at 6’
3” and 242 pounds, I want to see
the tape because if he can’t
block, that is tough roster spot for
a TE to earn.
Matt Ryan where are you? He
showed up but did not work out
other than a forty yard dash. I am
concerned because he passed
on the Senior Bowl as well and
now we must wait for his pro day
to really evaluate him. I like
competitors. I like Chris Long
competing and really not needing
to, I like people jumping the start
in the forty trying to get an edge, I
don’t like Matt Ryan so far, other
than the tape. I hope he puts on
a show later because the NFL
needs a competitor at QB.
Dolphins taking notes, low IME,
but will he compete?
IME is a term we coined here at
AFATT to identify and quantify
and the effect of winning the
lottery. It is impossible to predict
how one will react to instant
wealth, but there are tell-tale
signs from their past that give
clues and here at AFATT we
study these and have come up
with a predictive index that will
help identify those who are
severely afflicted. A low IME
means he is a safer pick, a high
IME will have our Bustometer
pegged. (For those ill-informed, a
Bustometer measures the
propensity for a draft pick to be a
bust)… Because AFATT Says So!
the Combine
NFL Draft News
Joe Tarell February 25, 2008
As we approach the 2008 NFL
Draft, the NFL Combine in
Indianapolis is one of the
moments we all wait for with
anxious anticipation. It answers
many questions, raises many
more, it reveals and conceals, but
mostly it gives solid numbers to
match to the tape. One thing is
does not answer, but maybe with
better interviewing skills it would,
and that is the IME of a prospect.
At AFATT, we believe the NFL
Draft must be run based on the
IME of first round prospects.
The IME refers to the Instant
Millionaire Effect. What will
happen when they get millions of
dollars dumped in their lap as a
high draft pick in the 2008 NFL
Draft.
Darren McFadden, darling of the
NFL Draft runs a 4.27, a 4.33
officially, in the forty yard dash.
Are you impressed? Not really, I
knew he was fast and shifty and
all those other words used to
describe a highly productive and
talented college RB. He must
answer some other questions
about character, running style,
and durability. I am not sure the
Combine is the place to get those
answers. My jury is still out, but
the IME is saying… let the slide
begin.
Jake Long bangs out 37 reps in
the bench press in preparation
for the NFL Draft. With arms as
long as he has, that is some
serious strength and endurance.
Tall guys with long arms that can
deliver a punch when blocking
and have the strength to hold off
a bull rush become all-pros. His
footwork is solid and more
importantly he seems like a really
level-headed guy during the
interviews, in other words I do not
expect him to react adversely to
the IME. Dolphins take note.
Chris Long is upset with his 34”
vertical leap, says he can do 36.
He is a competitor and anyone
who can get 270 pounds 34” off
the ground from a stand still has
the explosion necessary to play
DE in the NFL. My concern is the
bench press reps were not over
31, so that needs work. But,
again, money should not change
him. He grew up in the same
house as a millionaire dad and
did not become a problem
teenager, so expect him to handle
it well. Dolphins take note once
more.
Jonathan Stewart runs a 4.48
forty yard dash, gets 28 bench
press reps, has a vertical of 36.5”
and has the build at 5’11” and
235 pounds that makes a certain
spindly legged Arkansas back
move down my draft board. In
addition, when I hear his
interviews, he is a really sharp
kid. Humble, thoughtful, soft
spoken and speaks with
determination. I want to know
more about his background to
better understand how he might
handle the IME, but he is climbing
my draft board.
Brian Brohm runs a 4.83 and has
a vertical 30” and who cares? I
don’t, but I like this guy no matter
how high he jumps or how fast he
runs. He seems to have the right
focus and upbringing for a QB in
the NFL. Not quite a Manning
family history but he knows how to
act and he has lived in the
spotlight since being a star early
in high school (three state titles).
The money won’t spoil, the
spotlight will not cause shrinkage,
his arm is NFL ready and the
football mind is superb. He will
climb back up the draft boards he
slipped down the last few months.
Dustin Keller, TE from Purdue is
one to watch. He has been the
highlight of the first few days here
in Indy. He just might become the
next Mike Mamula or maybe he
can actually play. He ran a great
forty yard dash at 4.55, had a
vertical of 38” and even got 26
reps on the bench. Of course he
also excelled at catching the ball
which should matter even more,
but this Combine has become a
numbers game for many. But at 6’
3” and 242 pounds, I want to see
the tape because if he can’t
block, that is tough roster spot for
a TE to earn.
Matt Ryan where are you? He
showed up but did not work out
other than a forty yard dash. I am
concerned because he passed
on the Senior Bowl as well and
now we must wait for his pro day
to really evaluate him. I like
competitors. I like Chris Long
competing and really not needing
to, I like people jumping the start
in the forty trying to get an edge, I
don’t like Matt Ryan so far, other
than the tape. I hope he puts on
a show later because the NFL
needs a competitor at QB.
Dolphins taking notes, low IME,
but will he compete?
IME is a term we coined here at
AFATT to identify and quantify
and the effect of winning the
lottery. It is impossible to predict
how one will react to instant
wealth, but there are tell-tale
signs from their past that give
clues and here at AFATT we
study these and have come up
with a predictive index that will
help identify those who are
severely afflicted. A low IME
means he is a safer pick, a high
IME will have our Bustometer
pegged. (For those ill-informed, a
Bustometer measures the
propensity for a draft pick to be a
bust)… Because AFATT Says So!
What Happened to Brian
Brohm?
Joe Tarell, March 10, 2008
As we approach the 2008 NFL
Draft, several players' situations
warrant a closer look and Brian
Brohm is at the top of that list. At
AFATT, we believe the NFL Draft
should be all about avoiding busts
in the first round, especially at the
top, so players taken early,
quarterbacks in particular, get a lot
of attention and need to be
carefully analyzed. The question
to ask now though is, “has Brian
Brohm been overanalyzed?” He
has the look of Brady Quinn from
the 2007 NFL Draft.
Brohm came back for his senior
year even though many thought
he would come out. He had a new
coach with Bobby Petrino going to
the Falcons and his grades were
exceptionally high. His senior
season turned out to be a disaster
from a team perspective, finishing
6-6 after being projected as a top
ten team by many pundits. It also
must have been frustrating to
watch a defense give up points in
bunches and lose games by
scores of 38-31, 44-35, 38-35,
and 40-34. Imagine how
frustrating it must have been for
Brohm, scoring 31 or more points
in four different games and losing
them all.
The interesting thing to me in all
this is that Brohm never quit, never
bad-mouthed the defense or cried
poor me. He was a picture of
composure and was a solid
teammate according to all reports.
In several of those games he
brought his team back from big
deficits only to see the defense
give up another score. The
bottom-line for me is that this
season will do nothing but help
Brian Brohm in his career
development. Adversity can bring
out the worst in people, but it also
reveals character and I believe this
kid has a ton of it.
The knocks on him are that the
arm is not great, he does not use
his hips to throw and struggles to
throw on the move with much
accuracy. He also has been
injured, yet in my mind he showed
toughness in the way he played
through and how quickly he
returned from those injuries. I also
have heard that he is a typical
coddled superstar, having grown
up in Louisville and with his
brothers on the staff, and his dad
attending practices. All that can
be seen as a negative or it can
point to a ton of pressure to
perform. He shows no
characteristics of a spoiled Todd
Marinovich type.
Let me tell you why he is rated
higher on AFATT than others
might see him in their 2008 NFL
Draft analysis. He won three state
championships in high school. He
went to state in baseball and
basketball when the high school
had no history of success in these
sports before his teams. The kid
is a winner, having won in college
as well. He is extremely smart and
I like that family background and
the fact that his brother played
professional baseball. There is a
history of success and support.
This may not be the Manning
family but the support system is
solid. He is a finance major with a
3.75 GPA so the IME issues that
dog many high draft picks should
be minimized. He scored high on
the Wonderlic.
The bottom line; if you can get this
guy in the mid to late first round,
you are getting a steal. Because
AFATT says so…
Brohm?
Joe Tarell, March 10, 2008
As we approach the 2008 NFL
Draft, several players' situations
warrant a closer look and Brian
Brohm is at the top of that list. At
AFATT, we believe the NFL Draft
should be all about avoiding busts
in the first round, especially at the
top, so players taken early,
quarterbacks in particular, get a lot
of attention and need to be
carefully analyzed. The question
to ask now though is, “has Brian
Brohm been overanalyzed?” He
has the look of Brady Quinn from
the 2007 NFL Draft.
Brohm came back for his senior
year even though many thought
he would come out. He had a new
coach with Bobby Petrino going to
the Falcons and his grades were
exceptionally high. His senior
season turned out to be a disaster
from a team perspective, finishing
6-6 after being projected as a top
ten team by many pundits. It also
must have been frustrating to
watch a defense give up points in
bunches and lose games by
scores of 38-31, 44-35, 38-35,
and 40-34. Imagine how
frustrating it must have been for
Brohm, scoring 31 or more points
in four different games and losing
them all.
The interesting thing to me in all
this is that Brohm never quit, never
bad-mouthed the defense or cried
poor me. He was a picture of
composure and was a solid
teammate according to all reports.
In several of those games he
brought his team back from big
deficits only to see the defense
give up another score. The
bottom-line for me is that this
season will do nothing but help
Brian Brohm in his career
development. Adversity can bring
out the worst in people, but it also
reveals character and I believe this
kid has a ton of it.
The knocks on him are that the
arm is not great, he does not use
his hips to throw and struggles to
throw on the move with much
accuracy. He also has been
injured, yet in my mind he showed
toughness in the way he played
through and how quickly he
returned from those injuries. I also
have heard that he is a typical
coddled superstar, having grown
up in Louisville and with his
brothers on the staff, and his dad
attending practices. All that can
be seen as a negative or it can
point to a ton of pressure to
perform. He shows no
characteristics of a spoiled Todd
Marinovich type.
Let me tell you why he is rated
higher on AFATT than others
might see him in their 2008 NFL
Draft analysis. He won three state
championships in high school. He
went to state in baseball and
basketball when the high school
had no history of success in these
sports before his teams. The kid
is a winner, having won in college
as well. He is extremely smart and
I like that family background and
the fact that his brother played
professional baseball. There is a
history of success and support.
This may not be the Manning
family but the support system is
solid. He is a finance major with a
3.75 GPA so the IME issues that
dog many high draft picks should
be minimized. He scored high on
the Wonderlic.
The bottom line; if you can get this
guy in the mid to late first round,
you are getting a steal. Because
AFATT says so…
What to Make of
Jonathan Stewart
Joe Tarell, March 27, 2008
AFATT had Jonathan Stewart as
our number one running back on
the big board after the Combine.
Now we are forced to re-think that
position in light of his recent
surgery for a turf toe injury
suffered last November. But
before we delve into Stewart’s
current dilemma, we should
probably explain how he got to the
top of the running back class and
ahead of everyone’s consensus,
Darren McFadden.
In analyzing this running back class
keep these factors in mind; we
believe the build of a running back
is one of the biggest indicators of
success in the NFL; we believe in
character above all else in the first
round; we believe that running
back is the easiest position to draft
for in the later rounds (See article
from January 29th). Darren
McFadden is clearly the most
talented back in the draft. He is
also the one with the worst build;
spindly legs and upright running
styles can spell injury disaster in
the NFL when you are no longer
2/10’s faster than the whole
defense. More importantly he has
some issues with character that
spell disaster when he becomes an
Instant Millionaire and the IME
starts tugging on him. Draft him a
little later, knock his ego down a
notch, get his hunger up and he
might straighten up, draft him in
the top six and we believe he is a
bust waiting to happen.
We also like Rashard Mendenhall
and see him as a first round
talent. The big concern here is the
lack of consistent production in
college. He had 858 yards
combined his first two seasons at
Illinois and then broke out with
1681 yards as a junior. His build is
similar to Jonathan Stewart but
slightly taller and lighter at 5’11”
and 224 pounds and about the
same speed, 4.45. We like stocky
abd strong lower bodies on a RB
and do not worry about height. He
put up 26 reps on the bench press
and caught 34 passes last year.
He is right behind Stewart and
slightly above McFadden in post-
combine grades. He also seems to
have the character that teams are
looking for; according to AOL
Sports, “Asked what he likes to do
in his free time, Mendenhall said,
"One of the things I like to do that's
relaxing is I write a lot and I read."
By all accounts he is team
oriented, comes from a good family
and has never been in trouble off
the field.
So coming out of the Combine,
AFATT’s NFL Draft experts had
Stewart, Mendenhall and
McFadden as our top three backs,
in that order. Since Stewart needs
4-6 months to heal, we are looking
at possibly August before he is
ready, meaning he could miss all of
training camp and potentially the
pre-season as well. With that in
mind, he has to move down the
draft board because of the money
involved if nothing else. This is an
injury that should not linger now
that the surgery has been
performed, so that is not a real
concern. The fact that he played
through it and the 4.48 forty with
the injury still a factor make me
give him points for toughness.
One thing we know in the NFL is
you will be injured and the only
question is can you play through
them and how fast do you heal. I
believe the board now changes to
move Mendenhall to the top spot,
but I think all three need to move
down past number 20 on the big
board.
As I stated in that earlier article,
teams should not draft a running
back high unless they are certain
he is the next LaDanian
Tomlinson. The top rushers of
recent years other than LT, are
Sean Alexander, Larry Johnson,
Tiki Barber, Jamal Lewis, Ahman
Green, Clinton Portis, etc. There
are many more of these players
picked after number 20 than there
are top 10 picks. Most of them will
flame out quickly and there is just
too much quality available to pay
the high salaries that go with those
top picks if there are questions.
The draft board will need to
change with Stewart’s injury, but
not drastically because when our
board finalizes later next month, all
the RB’s will have slipped to late
first round or worst. It just makes
sense… and AFATT Says So.
BTW – J Lehman from Illinois just
moved up my draft board. I found
this while researching Mendenhall.
– “Leman is also a semifinalist for
the Draddy Award. One of college
football's most sought after and
competitive awards, the Draddy
Trophy recognizes an individual as
the absolute best in the country for
his combined academic success,
football performance and
exemplary community leadership.
Leman has already graduated from
the U of I with a degree in speech
communications and will complete
his master's degree in human
resource education in December.
He carries a 3.71 GPA and has
twice been named a CoSIDA/ESPN
The Magazine Academic All-
District selection.”
Jonathan Stewart
Joe Tarell, March 27, 2008
AFATT had Jonathan Stewart as
our number one running back on
the big board after the Combine.
Now we are forced to re-think that
position in light of his recent
surgery for a turf toe injury
suffered last November. But
before we delve into Stewart’s
current dilemma, we should
probably explain how he got to the
top of the running back class and
ahead of everyone’s consensus,
Darren McFadden.
In analyzing this running back class
keep these factors in mind; we
believe the build of a running back
is one of the biggest indicators of
success in the NFL; we believe in
character above all else in the first
round; we believe that running
back is the easiest position to draft
for in the later rounds (See article
from January 29th). Darren
McFadden is clearly the most
talented back in the draft. He is
also the one with the worst build;
spindly legs and upright running
styles can spell injury disaster in
the NFL when you are no longer
2/10’s faster than the whole
defense. More importantly he has
some issues with character that
spell disaster when he becomes an
Instant Millionaire and the IME
starts tugging on him. Draft him a
little later, knock his ego down a
notch, get his hunger up and he
might straighten up, draft him in
the top six and we believe he is a
bust waiting to happen.
We also like Rashard Mendenhall
and see him as a first round
talent. The big concern here is the
lack of consistent production in
college. He had 858 yards
combined his first two seasons at
Illinois and then broke out with
1681 yards as a junior. His build is
similar to Jonathan Stewart but
slightly taller and lighter at 5’11”
and 224 pounds and about the
same speed, 4.45. We like stocky
abd strong lower bodies on a RB
and do not worry about height. He
put up 26 reps on the bench press
and caught 34 passes last year.
He is right behind Stewart and
slightly above McFadden in post-
combine grades. He also seems to
have the character that teams are
looking for; according to AOL
Sports, “Asked what he likes to do
in his free time, Mendenhall said,
"One of the things I like to do that's
relaxing is I write a lot and I read."
By all accounts he is team
oriented, comes from a good family
and has never been in trouble off
the field.
So coming out of the Combine,
AFATT’s NFL Draft experts had
Stewart, Mendenhall and
McFadden as our top three backs,
in that order. Since Stewart needs
4-6 months to heal, we are looking
at possibly August before he is
ready, meaning he could miss all of
training camp and potentially the
pre-season as well. With that in
mind, he has to move down the
draft board because of the money
involved if nothing else. This is an
injury that should not linger now
that the surgery has been
performed, so that is not a real
concern. The fact that he played
through it and the 4.48 forty with
the injury still a factor make me
give him points for toughness.
One thing we know in the NFL is
you will be injured and the only
question is can you play through
them and how fast do you heal. I
believe the board now changes to
move Mendenhall to the top spot,
but I think all three need to move
down past number 20 on the big
board.
As I stated in that earlier article,
teams should not draft a running
back high unless they are certain
he is the next LaDanian
Tomlinson. The top rushers of
recent years other than LT, are
Sean Alexander, Larry Johnson,
Tiki Barber, Jamal Lewis, Ahman
Green, Clinton Portis, etc. There
are many more of these players
picked after number 20 than there
are top 10 picks. Most of them will
flame out quickly and there is just
too much quality available to pay
the high salaries that go with those
top picks if there are questions.
The draft board will need to
change with Stewart’s injury, but
not drastically because when our
board finalizes later next month, all
the RB’s will have slipped to late
first round or worst. It just makes
sense… and AFATT Says So.
BTW – J Lehman from Illinois just
moved up my draft board. I found
this while researching Mendenhall.
– “Leman is also a semifinalist for
the Draddy Award. One of college
football's most sought after and
competitive awards, the Draddy
Trophy recognizes an individual as
the absolute best in the country for
his combined academic success,
football performance and
exemplary community leadership.
Leman has already graduated from
the U of I with a degree in speech
communications and will complete
his master's degree in human
resource education in December.
He carries a 3.71 GPA and has
twice been named a CoSIDA/ESPN
The Magazine Academic All-
District selection.”
2008 NFL Draft Recap
Joe Tarell, April 30, 2008
The picks are in, the press conferences have been held and all the talking heads have proclaimed winners
and losers. This is something we all have done and probably will continue to do for a long time forward.
However, reflecting back on an article in Sports Illustrated about re-drafting the 1998 class, the realization hits
me that we are still looking at this the wrong way.
Perhaps teams like Philadelphia who have shown a propensity to trade out of the first round are the ones who
truly understand how to manage the draft in this day and age. That makes them a winner. First round picks
have almost become a liability, not an asset. The bonus paid out and the likelihood that the pick will succeed
makes it a fool’s game tantamount to betting against the house in Vegas.
In the 1998 draft, Peyton Manning went number one overall followed by Ryan Leaf to the Chargers. We all
know that story so let’s not rehash it, except to ask this question; what would have happened if Ryan Leaf had
gone in the second round? Better yet, what would have happened to Matt Hasselbeck if he had gone in the
first round, second overall? He was clearly the second best QB, could he have handled that spotlight any
better than Leaf?
So as the story is written, and many others have been written before; if you re-draft the class, you change the
future, but it does not change in a vacuum. Randy Moss should not have been the second player drafted in
1998. Why? Because after sliding to the 21st pick, Moss had a chip the size of the state of West Virginia on
his shoulder. He also had a mentor named Cris Carter who almost lost his career over a drug problem in
Philadelphia. Further proof is offered by the results Moss attained while with Oakland. He finally got his due,
and his payday, and he promptly quit producing. Conversely, trade him to New England for a fourth rounder
and let him pick up the chip for his shoulder on his way to New England and you have the best season ever by
a Wide Receiver. Coincidence? We think not.
So, now let’s take a look at the 2008 draft with an eye to the future and pick a few players who may or may not
become busts. Derrick Harvey, for example, has bust written all over him. He was a player known to take
plays and games off in college which raises a big red flag when you are about to receive 15-20 million dollars
without playing a single play or lifting a single weight or running a single wind sprint. That scares me if it is my
15-20 million.
AFATT was down on Malcolm Kelly after his debacle of a Pro Day and his attitude toward his training staff at
Oklahoma, not to mention the 4.68 forty time. We took him off our board. However, by getting drafted late in
the second round as the THIRD receiver taken by the Redskins, let alone being the eighth receiver overall to
come off the board, it may have saved his career. It seems to me he could use some humbling, and also could
use some competition and he has it now. He might just make it.
Kelly could ultimately be done in by the 4.68 and lack of talent, but his track record at Oklahoma suggests
differently. Ryan Leaf had all the talent in the world. He was a party boy and a cry baby once he became a
multi-millionaire. Take that money away, and according to the players he now coaches on the West Texas
A&M golf team, he is a pretty good guy. He was a bust because of expectations and character flaws that got
magnified when he hit the lottery. Money changes people and usually not for the better. Kelly had his money
taken away, so maybe...
Let’s skip grading the teams in the draft and see if we can pinpoint who will be a bust. If someone has to be a
first round pick and money changes people, then we better find the one that it changes in a positive way or at
least where money is not their driving force. The teams that took offensive linemen thinking they were safer
picks, might be looking at things through rose colored glasses. It is not a positional thing, but a character
thing. Now, I will grant you that WR and CB are two of the positions that come to mind when we think of
character flaws that might be uncovered with a million dollar signing bonus, but these are still people, and
some will be unaffected while others will tank. So who scares me most in the first round:
Matt Ryan – not character, but a lousy team and a bad situation for a “savior” to walk into means major
pressure
Darren McFadden – from his family history and bar fights, to his running style, to his landing in Oakland
Vernon Gholston – he was taking plays off in college and lacks passion, what does he do as a millionaire
Derrick Harvey – enough said above
Leodis McKelvin – small school in Alabama to the cold of Buffalo, I might take my $15 million and hibernate
Aquib Talib – testing positive three times for pot doesn't prevent first round pick... he must be invincible
Chris Johnson – a crowded backfield and if 4.24 was so great, how come no one heard of him until the
combine
Duane Brown – this was a third or fourth rounder on most boards, pressure to perform is harsh even as an
OT
Kentwan Balmer – one year wonder, motivated by new coach in college, rich and lazy now is my guess
History has shown that about half the first round will not be worthy of their draft status. The question is always
which half. We may not be right about the players above, but we believe that the Instant Millionaire Effect has
got to be a part of your draft strategy. Which players will continue to perform when they just hit the lottery?
Which players are motivated by the desire for greatness? Which players truly love this brutal sport as it is
played at the highest levels?
These are the questions that help determine your draft success. And trading out of the first round where
chips on the shoulder get bigger and arrogance is knocked back a notch can help. So kudos to Philadelphia
(again) and to Washington (Maybe they knew something by skipping this draft thing the last few years). Only
time will tell who was right and who was wrong, but skipping the first round is not a bad strategy… because
AFATT Says So!
Joe Tarell, April 30, 2008
The picks are in, the press conferences have been held and all the talking heads have proclaimed winners
and losers. This is something we all have done and probably will continue to do for a long time forward.
However, reflecting back on an article in Sports Illustrated about re-drafting the 1998 class, the realization hits
me that we are still looking at this the wrong way.
Perhaps teams like Philadelphia who have shown a propensity to trade out of the first round are the ones who
truly understand how to manage the draft in this day and age. That makes them a winner. First round picks
have almost become a liability, not an asset. The bonus paid out and the likelihood that the pick will succeed
makes it a fool’s game tantamount to betting against the house in Vegas.
In the 1998 draft, Peyton Manning went number one overall followed by Ryan Leaf to the Chargers. We all
know that story so let’s not rehash it, except to ask this question; what would have happened if Ryan Leaf had
gone in the second round? Better yet, what would have happened to Matt Hasselbeck if he had gone in the
first round, second overall? He was clearly the second best QB, could he have handled that spotlight any
better than Leaf?
So as the story is written, and many others have been written before; if you re-draft the class, you change the
future, but it does not change in a vacuum. Randy Moss should not have been the second player drafted in
1998. Why? Because after sliding to the 21st pick, Moss had a chip the size of the state of West Virginia on
his shoulder. He also had a mentor named Cris Carter who almost lost his career over a drug problem in
Philadelphia. Further proof is offered by the results Moss attained while with Oakland. He finally got his due,
and his payday, and he promptly quit producing. Conversely, trade him to New England for a fourth rounder
and let him pick up the chip for his shoulder on his way to New England and you have the best season ever by
a Wide Receiver. Coincidence? We think not.
So, now let’s take a look at the 2008 draft with an eye to the future and pick a few players who may or may not
become busts. Derrick Harvey, for example, has bust written all over him. He was a player known to take
plays and games off in college which raises a big red flag when you are about to receive 15-20 million dollars
without playing a single play or lifting a single weight or running a single wind sprint. That scares me if it is my
15-20 million.
AFATT was down on Malcolm Kelly after his debacle of a Pro Day and his attitude toward his training staff at
Oklahoma, not to mention the 4.68 forty time. We took him off our board. However, by getting drafted late in
the second round as the THIRD receiver taken by the Redskins, let alone being the eighth receiver overall to
come off the board, it may have saved his career. It seems to me he could use some humbling, and also could
use some competition and he has it now. He might just make it.
Kelly could ultimately be done in by the 4.68 and lack of talent, but his track record at Oklahoma suggests
differently. Ryan Leaf had all the talent in the world. He was a party boy and a cry baby once he became a
multi-millionaire. Take that money away, and according to the players he now coaches on the West Texas
A&M golf team, he is a pretty good guy. He was a bust because of expectations and character flaws that got
magnified when he hit the lottery. Money changes people and usually not for the better. Kelly had his money
taken away, so maybe...
Let’s skip grading the teams in the draft and see if we can pinpoint who will be a bust. If someone has to be a
first round pick and money changes people, then we better find the one that it changes in a positive way or at
least where money is not their driving force. The teams that took offensive linemen thinking they were safer
picks, might be looking at things through rose colored glasses. It is not a positional thing, but a character
thing. Now, I will grant you that WR and CB are two of the positions that come to mind when we think of
character flaws that might be uncovered with a million dollar signing bonus, but these are still people, and
some will be unaffected while others will tank. So who scares me most in the first round:
Matt Ryan – not character, but a lousy team and a bad situation for a “savior” to walk into means major
pressure
Darren McFadden – from his family history and bar fights, to his running style, to his landing in Oakland
Vernon Gholston – he was taking plays off in college and lacks passion, what does he do as a millionaire
Derrick Harvey – enough said above
Leodis McKelvin – small school in Alabama to the cold of Buffalo, I might take my $15 million and hibernate
Aquib Talib – testing positive three times for pot doesn't prevent first round pick... he must be invincible
Chris Johnson – a crowded backfield and if 4.24 was so great, how come no one heard of him until the
combine
Duane Brown – this was a third or fourth rounder on most boards, pressure to perform is harsh even as an
OT
Kentwan Balmer – one year wonder, motivated by new coach in college, rich and lazy now is my guess
History has shown that about half the first round will not be worthy of their draft status. The question is always
which half. We may not be right about the players above, but we believe that the Instant Millionaire Effect has
got to be a part of your draft strategy. Which players will continue to perform when they just hit the lottery?
Which players are motivated by the desire for greatness? Which players truly love this brutal sport as it is
played at the highest levels?
These are the questions that help determine your draft success. And trading out of the first round where
chips on the shoulder get bigger and arrogance is knocked back a notch can help. So kudos to Philadelphia
(again) and to Washington (Maybe they knew something by skipping this draft thing the last few years). Only
time will tell who was right and who was wrong, but skipping the first round is not a bad strategy… because
AFATT Says So!
The First Day is Over,
Who Won and Who Lost
Joe Tarell, April 26, 2008
AFATT decide to run two Mock
NFL Drafts to try and predict not
only who might get picked
where, but also who we believe
will make it big in the NFL versus
who might end up as a bust.
Click on the links below to see
which way we went in each
Mock. The real first day picks
also held a bunch of intrigue.
Kansas City did a superb job in
getting three starters with Glenn
Dorsey, Branden Albert and
Brandon Flowers. All three
have Pro Bowl potential.
Washington made it clear that
they do not like their receivers
by picking two wide receivers
and a tight end when everyone
had them selecting a pass
rusher or a CB along with a WR.
Baltimore on the other hand
went with a project at QB in Joe
Flacco earlier than most thought
he should go and then took Ray
Rice in round two when RB was
not a real need area. This
seems a little questionable to
many of us. Green Bay sent a
signal to their new QB by taking
Brian Brohm in the second
round. Bill Parcells shocked no
one by taking lineman with his
first two picks and then went out
of character a little by grabbing
Chad Henne in the second
round. Maybe a little signal to
John Beck as well.
The other topic on the first day
were trades. With so little
difference between most of the
players, teams were very active
with trades to move up or down
and get in position to get the
players that fit their needs.
Roger Goodell seems to be
pretty accurate in how he
manages things because the
time between picks was cut by a
third but the trades seemed to
take place without any problems
(even from Minnesota). It
seems that moving around on
draft day has become
something of a chess match for
teams. And, Gunnar, Minnesota
made their draft early with the
trade for Jared Allen. A good
move, though the contract may
not be, with a two strike guy.
Pittsburgh surprised everyone
by taking Rashard Mendenhall
in the first round and got Limas
Sweed, most people's number
one receiver, in the second
round. Mendenhall does not
seem to make sense since they
have Willie Parker, but he was
obviously the top guy on their
board and they stayed true to
the board. Philadelphia made
several trades and really did a
solid job in getting Trevor Laws,
the third DT on many boards,
and a speed receiver in DeSean
Jackson, both in the second
round. Jackson is not someone
that AFATT endorses because
of his size and his work ethic,
but obviously has the speed that
Philly needs and he went in the
second round.
Who Won and Who Lost
Joe Tarell, April 26, 2008
AFATT decide to run two Mock
NFL Drafts to try and predict not
only who might get picked
where, but also who we believe
will make it big in the NFL versus
who might end up as a bust.
Click on the links below to see
which way we went in each
Mock. The real first day picks
also held a bunch of intrigue.
Kansas City did a superb job in
getting three starters with Glenn
Dorsey, Branden Albert and
Brandon Flowers. All three
have Pro Bowl potential.
Washington made it clear that
they do not like their receivers
by picking two wide receivers
and a tight end when everyone
had them selecting a pass
rusher or a CB along with a WR.
Baltimore on the other hand
went with a project at QB in Joe
Flacco earlier than most thought
he should go and then took Ray
Rice in round two when RB was
not a real need area. This
seems a little questionable to
many of us. Green Bay sent a
signal to their new QB by taking
Brian Brohm in the second
round. Bill Parcells shocked no
one by taking lineman with his
first two picks and then went out
of character a little by grabbing
Chad Henne in the second
round. Maybe a little signal to
John Beck as well.
The other topic on the first day
were trades. With so little
difference between most of the
players, teams were very active
with trades to move up or down
and get in position to get the
players that fit their needs.
Roger Goodell seems to be
pretty accurate in how he
manages things because the
time between picks was cut by a
third but the trades seemed to
take place without any problems
(even from Minnesota). It
seems that moving around on
draft day has become
something of a chess match for
teams. And, Gunnar, Minnesota
made their draft early with the
trade for Jared Allen. A good
move, though the contract may
not be, with a two strike guy.
Pittsburgh surprised everyone
by taking Rashard Mendenhall
in the first round and got Limas
Sweed, most people's number
one receiver, in the second
round. Mendenhall does not
seem to make sense since they
have Willie Parker, but he was
obviously the top guy on their
board and they stayed true to
the board. Philadelphia made
several trades and really did a
solid job in getting Trevor Laws,
the third DT on many boards,
and a speed receiver in DeSean
Jackson, both in the second
round. Jackson is not someone
that AFATT endorses because
of his size and his work ethic,
but obviously has the speed that
Philly needs and he went in the
second round.