Who wins it all this year, seems obvious now, but not so much earlier this year.
Week Four Report
So we are a quarter of the way through the 2007 season and we now can see some trends start to emerge.
Because of the foresight of Pete Rozelle and some others in the sixties and early seventies, the NFL has a
parity system that is pretty tough to screw up. Because of this we see teams emerge every year that surprise
both with their ineptitude after showing great promise or success the previous year, but also teams that play
much better than their recent history would suggest. By about the fourth week each year, these trends become
evident.
Now, since I mentioned the fact that it is pretty tough to screw up Rozelle’s work, but not impossible, let me take
a few paragraphs and fill you in on those that seem to find a way. Start with Atlanta. They seem to show flashes
and appear to be on the right track at times, then crash back to mediocrity or below. The Lions have found a
new way to lose year after year for quite some time now. It seems that Bill Ford has had as little success with
his football team as he has managed with his great grandfather’s car company. The Saints also come to mind,
though last year and also when Jim Mora, Sr. was coaching there they gave us brief glimpses of hope. With the
draft and the schedule structure, teams will get a chance to acquire talent and win games if they just don’t screw
it up.
So what about the Dolphins, who have not won a playoff game for how long now, 1999 season? They do not
seem to be using the draft well. For years they were good, but not championship caliber, their draft picks were
never high in round one and they stayed in that cycle until recently. Think about it though, this team has not
been to the Super Bowl since 1984. The playoff teams of Shula’s later years and Jimmie Johnson, gave hope,
but this is a team that needs to be rebuilt from the front office on down. The Bengals were the poster child for
bungled drafts for years and it showed with their results until Marvin Lewis came, but he still does not seem able
to get them over the hump, but they have been to the Super Bowl more recently than the Dolphins. I am afraid
that Cam Cameron and Randy Mueller are not going to be the answer either. The drafting of Ted Ginn was a
huge mistake. He is not NFL caliber, is afraid to explode up field on returns and can’t get on the field as a
receiver even though their receiving corps is weak. With the run defense the way it is, forget Brady Quinn.
They had Amobi Okoye sitting on the board at number nine. That 20 year old could anchor your defensive line
for 15 years.
So what changes has parity brought to my predictions and what should we look for moving into the heart of the
season? Let’s focus first on the NFC. Not as many surprises as one might think and several teams have a
chance to turn things around. Several of my picks already look real shaky, but I just blame it on Pete Rozelle
and the damn parity. I get a pass on the Cowboys because, it pained me to pick them 6-10, since a perfect
year for me would be 0-16. I also get a pass on the Saints because everybody else picked them to be even
better than I did. They won’t sniff 11 wins. So who is who and how come?
The Lions are a pass-first team that will win some games they shouldn’t and maybe continue to surprise, but no,
John Kitna, this is not a 10 win team. As bad as the Vikings are and the Bears appear to be, they may get eight
or nine though, but Detroit fans should not look too close at the numbers. The Bears need more than Brian
Griese; their offensive line is offensive. No quarterback will play well for long behind that line because they can’
t run the ball. And no, they do not need Thomas Jones back. Cedric Benson can tote the rock. They need
blocking. And what happened to that defense. They are done, no 10 win season here either.
To quote Dennis Green, kind of, the Giants are who we thought they were. Despite the wins over the Eagles
and Redskins the past two weeks, they still hate their coach and they still will have trouble finishing the season.
Five wins is still realistic for them. The Eagles will come around. They ran into a former assistant and they now
realize how valuable Westbrook is and how bad their receivers really are, but unless Andy Reid quits, they will
come back. Who else is bad? The Saints defense is horrible and the offense has fallen to the same level and
will continue to struggle without McAllister. They will have to re-invent themselves with Reggie Bush featured in
a wide open attack to salvage anything this season. I can’t get much enthusiasm going for the Panthers, but
surely they are better than they have looked and nine wins is still reasonable. The Rams are already done. No
Jackson, no Orlando Pace and now a starting guard is missing. If you pair those issues with old receivers, no
defense and a QB that got his contract so he does not have much left to prove and they have a very high draft
pick coming. The Cardinals showed some real fire against Whisenhunt’s former team, the Steelers, but I can’t
see them getting that high every week nor having inside information on every team and the rotating QB has
never been real successful.
The Bucs may be for real, but losing Cadillac Williams hurts and if the young kid behind Luke Pettigout can’t get
it done, Jeff Garcia may miss him a lot more than Williams. Their defense continues to play better than
expected, so if their age does not catch up to them later in the year, they will win more than eight, maybe 10
games. Monte Kiffin is for real. San Francisco is the team that many, including this prognosticator expected to
play better than they have. Maybe Norv Turner’s new job is hurting more teams than just the Chargers? Still,
at 2-2 and 2-1 in the Division they are capable of hitting the goal. The injury to Alex Smith is troubling though
and Seattle offers formidable competition. If the Seahawks can beat Pittsburgh on the road this week, then look
out because this is a team, and a coach that is proven and they have a real home field advantage in Seattle.
That is a long trip for visiting teams, to play in lousy weather.
Okay enough preliminaries, let’s talk about who wins this thing. And no, I am not going to pick Dallas. The
Owens explosion is out there, trust me. I was all alone in picking the Packers to lead the North Division and with
Favre playing great, I am wondering if I picked low at 10-6. That defense is for real, their offensive line is
playing okay, not great, so they need to find a running game and then they could make noise in the playoffs.
Brett Favre is still a top QB and this is a QB league. I like their chances. Bottom line, I am still sticking with the
Redskins. Joe Gibbs’ teams always finish strong. When he gets them out of the gate, they win Super Bowls. If
Campbell can stay alive while the new right side of the offensive line gels, they will continue to win. Right now
they are well positioned. The loss going into the bye week will allow Gibbs to keep them focused and unless
that line just falls apart they will be who we thought they were. Losing Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas is a
serious blow to any team, but they have quality depth.
AFC Thoughts…
Patriots run away and hide. The Colts are damn good on offense and could challenge, but I still believe that
defense does it with mirrors. I saw a stat where they give up an average of 68 more yards per game rushing
without Bob Sanders in the lineup. I am sorry, but a safety does not make that much difference. The Patriots
will score early and often on them and then Manning will get too predictable for that defense. I am sticking with
the Patriots. Pittsburgh is tougher than I thought, but not able to keep up offensively with these two teams. The
other teams expected to do well, Tennessee, Denver and Cincinnati are either still a notch below or missing a
defense (Cincy), and with the Chargers melt down this appears to be a three horse race already.
I picked the Chargers to go 12-4, but not reach the Bowl. With all that talent, the thought was that not even
Norv Turner could screw that up. Whoops! It makes us all wonder if Archie Manning knew A.J. Smith better
than we thought when he orchestrated that trade to New York. Trust me, it was not Eli calling that shot and it
seemed like a huge mistake, but Smith has let his ego destroy a damn fine football team. They should rally,
and may still challenge for the West Division, but only because no one else is really exceptional. This is a team
that is shell-shocked and I do not believe that Turner has the leadership skills to bring them out of it. The losing
gets in your head and then couple that with adjusting to five other coaches and that is a lot to overcome.
The Browns are the biggest surprise to me right now. I just can’t seem to fathom how a team that drafts a QB in
the first round, trading away next year’s pick to get him, can fire the QB who won the job based on six months of
off-season and pre-season work, after 1 and a half quarters of play, then trades him away two days later, hands
the job to someone else, not the rookie you mortgaged your future to get, then wins two out of three games,
scoring 51 points in one of the wins. Is this a sit-com or did this really happen? Well, I hope they just keep on
winning. Every win they get, makes Dallas’ draft pick next year a little higher.
The Jets and the Bills are horrible. The only thing they can look to is playing each other and two games against
the Dolphins to give them hope. The Patriots will have this division won by Thanksgiving. The Raiders look
much better. They play with heart, but somehow I just have to believe that Al Davis will find a way to suck the
life out of them before they get a head of steam up. With LaMont Jordan out for the season, the offense will
struggle, especially if they bring the rookie in at QB. Kansas City looks like a team that is waiting to implode. I
think Herm Edwards will keep them together though and with San Diego on a downer, they may sneak up into
the playoff picture. Denver has to play better defense. They will benefit from seeing Indianapolis early and
realizing where the bar is set in the AFC.
Tennessee is still a year away. They need some quality depth at receiver and they need to be in a different
division than the Colts until they can score more points, but never count out the value of Vince Young’s
leadership. Jacksonville seems to be in disarray, but may gel later in the year. Coach Del Rio and QB Leftwich
had such a bad relationship that they needed to part ways, but now the pressure is on to take this team to the
next level. I just don’t think Garrard is the guy to lead them there. If they fail and Del Rio gets fired, he is the
type of coach that I think will do real well if he can get in the right situation. Their defense is still superb.
So as the season rolls out, there are a few picks I want back and the hated Cowboys appear to be better than
we may have thought but I will stick with my picks. The Redskins to beat the Patriots in the Bowl still looks solid.
Check back with me after week eight.
Week Four Report
So we are a quarter of the way through the 2007 season and we now can see some trends start to emerge.
Because of the foresight of Pete Rozelle and some others in the sixties and early seventies, the NFL has a
parity system that is pretty tough to screw up. Because of this we see teams emerge every year that surprise
both with their ineptitude after showing great promise or success the previous year, but also teams that play
much better than their recent history would suggest. By about the fourth week each year, these trends become
evident.
Now, since I mentioned the fact that it is pretty tough to screw up Rozelle’s work, but not impossible, let me take
a few paragraphs and fill you in on those that seem to find a way. Start with Atlanta. They seem to show flashes
and appear to be on the right track at times, then crash back to mediocrity or below. The Lions have found a
new way to lose year after year for quite some time now. It seems that Bill Ford has had as little success with
his football team as he has managed with his great grandfather’s car company. The Saints also come to mind,
though last year and also when Jim Mora, Sr. was coaching there they gave us brief glimpses of hope. With the
draft and the schedule structure, teams will get a chance to acquire talent and win games if they just don’t screw
it up.
So what about the Dolphins, who have not won a playoff game for how long now, 1999 season? They do not
seem to be using the draft well. For years they were good, but not championship caliber, their draft picks were
never high in round one and they stayed in that cycle until recently. Think about it though, this team has not
been to the Super Bowl since 1984. The playoff teams of Shula’s later years and Jimmie Johnson, gave hope,
but this is a team that needs to be rebuilt from the front office on down. The Bengals were the poster child for
bungled drafts for years and it showed with their results until Marvin Lewis came, but he still does not seem able
to get them over the hump, but they have been to the Super Bowl more recently than the Dolphins. I am afraid
that Cam Cameron and Randy Mueller are not going to be the answer either. The drafting of Ted Ginn was a
huge mistake. He is not NFL caliber, is afraid to explode up field on returns and can’t get on the field as a
receiver even though their receiving corps is weak. With the run defense the way it is, forget Brady Quinn.
They had Amobi Okoye sitting on the board at number nine. That 20 year old could anchor your defensive line
for 15 years.
So what changes has parity brought to my predictions and what should we look for moving into the heart of the
season? Let’s focus first on the NFC. Not as many surprises as one might think and several teams have a
chance to turn things around. Several of my picks already look real shaky, but I just blame it on Pete Rozelle
and the damn parity. I get a pass on the Cowboys because, it pained me to pick them 6-10, since a perfect
year for me would be 0-16. I also get a pass on the Saints because everybody else picked them to be even
better than I did. They won’t sniff 11 wins. So who is who and how come?
The Lions are a pass-first team that will win some games they shouldn’t and maybe continue to surprise, but no,
John Kitna, this is not a 10 win team. As bad as the Vikings are and the Bears appear to be, they may get eight
or nine though, but Detroit fans should not look too close at the numbers. The Bears need more than Brian
Griese; their offensive line is offensive. No quarterback will play well for long behind that line because they can’
t run the ball. And no, they do not need Thomas Jones back. Cedric Benson can tote the rock. They need
blocking. And what happened to that defense. They are done, no 10 win season here either.
To quote Dennis Green, kind of, the Giants are who we thought they were. Despite the wins over the Eagles
and Redskins the past two weeks, they still hate their coach and they still will have trouble finishing the season.
Five wins is still realistic for them. The Eagles will come around. They ran into a former assistant and they now
realize how valuable Westbrook is and how bad their receivers really are, but unless Andy Reid quits, they will
come back. Who else is bad? The Saints defense is horrible and the offense has fallen to the same level and
will continue to struggle without McAllister. They will have to re-invent themselves with Reggie Bush featured in
a wide open attack to salvage anything this season. I can’t get much enthusiasm going for the Panthers, but
surely they are better than they have looked and nine wins is still reasonable. The Rams are already done. No
Jackson, no Orlando Pace and now a starting guard is missing. If you pair those issues with old receivers, no
defense and a QB that got his contract so he does not have much left to prove and they have a very high draft
pick coming. The Cardinals showed some real fire against Whisenhunt’s former team, the Steelers, but I can’t
see them getting that high every week nor having inside information on every team and the rotating QB has
never been real successful.
The Bucs may be for real, but losing Cadillac Williams hurts and if the young kid behind Luke Pettigout can’t get
it done, Jeff Garcia may miss him a lot more than Williams. Their defense continues to play better than
expected, so if their age does not catch up to them later in the year, they will win more than eight, maybe 10
games. Monte Kiffin is for real. San Francisco is the team that many, including this prognosticator expected to
play better than they have. Maybe Norv Turner’s new job is hurting more teams than just the Chargers? Still,
at 2-2 and 2-1 in the Division they are capable of hitting the goal. The injury to Alex Smith is troubling though
and Seattle offers formidable competition. If the Seahawks can beat Pittsburgh on the road this week, then look
out because this is a team, and a coach that is proven and they have a real home field advantage in Seattle.
That is a long trip for visiting teams, to play in lousy weather.
Okay enough preliminaries, let’s talk about who wins this thing. And no, I am not going to pick Dallas. The
Owens explosion is out there, trust me. I was all alone in picking the Packers to lead the North Division and with
Favre playing great, I am wondering if I picked low at 10-6. That defense is for real, their offensive line is
playing okay, not great, so they need to find a running game and then they could make noise in the playoffs.
Brett Favre is still a top QB and this is a QB league. I like their chances. Bottom line, I am still sticking with the
Redskins. Joe Gibbs’ teams always finish strong. When he gets them out of the gate, they win Super Bowls. If
Campbell can stay alive while the new right side of the offensive line gels, they will continue to win. Right now
they are well positioned. The loss going into the bye week will allow Gibbs to keep them focused and unless
that line just falls apart they will be who we thought they were. Losing Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas is a
serious blow to any team, but they have quality depth.
AFC Thoughts…
Patriots run away and hide. The Colts are damn good on offense and could challenge, but I still believe that
defense does it with mirrors. I saw a stat where they give up an average of 68 more yards per game rushing
without Bob Sanders in the lineup. I am sorry, but a safety does not make that much difference. The Patriots
will score early and often on them and then Manning will get too predictable for that defense. I am sticking with
the Patriots. Pittsburgh is tougher than I thought, but not able to keep up offensively with these two teams. The
other teams expected to do well, Tennessee, Denver and Cincinnati are either still a notch below or missing a
defense (Cincy), and with the Chargers melt down this appears to be a three horse race already.
I picked the Chargers to go 12-4, but not reach the Bowl. With all that talent, the thought was that not even
Norv Turner could screw that up. Whoops! It makes us all wonder if Archie Manning knew A.J. Smith better
than we thought when he orchestrated that trade to New York. Trust me, it was not Eli calling that shot and it
seemed like a huge mistake, but Smith has let his ego destroy a damn fine football team. They should rally,
and may still challenge for the West Division, but only because no one else is really exceptional. This is a team
that is shell-shocked and I do not believe that Turner has the leadership skills to bring them out of it. The losing
gets in your head and then couple that with adjusting to five other coaches and that is a lot to overcome.
The Browns are the biggest surprise to me right now. I just can’t seem to fathom how a team that drafts a QB in
the first round, trading away next year’s pick to get him, can fire the QB who won the job based on six months of
off-season and pre-season work, after 1 and a half quarters of play, then trades him away two days later, hands
the job to someone else, not the rookie you mortgaged your future to get, then wins two out of three games,
scoring 51 points in one of the wins. Is this a sit-com or did this really happen? Well, I hope they just keep on
winning. Every win they get, makes Dallas’ draft pick next year a little higher.
The Jets and the Bills are horrible. The only thing they can look to is playing each other and two games against
the Dolphins to give them hope. The Patriots will have this division won by Thanksgiving. The Raiders look
much better. They play with heart, but somehow I just have to believe that Al Davis will find a way to suck the
life out of them before they get a head of steam up. With LaMont Jordan out for the season, the offense will
struggle, especially if they bring the rookie in at QB. Kansas City looks like a team that is waiting to implode. I
think Herm Edwards will keep them together though and with San Diego on a downer, they may sneak up into
the playoff picture. Denver has to play better defense. They will benefit from seeing Indianapolis early and
realizing where the bar is set in the AFC.
Tennessee is still a year away. They need some quality depth at receiver and they need to be in a different
division than the Colts until they can score more points, but never count out the value of Vince Young’s
leadership. Jacksonville seems to be in disarray, but may gel later in the year. Coach Del Rio and QB Leftwich
had such a bad relationship that they needed to part ways, but now the pressure is on to take this team to the
next level. I just don’t think Garrard is the guy to lead them there. If they fail and Del Rio gets fired, he is the
type of coach that I think will do real well if he can get in the right situation. Their defense is still superb.
So as the season rolls out, there are a few picks I want back and the hated Cowboys appear to be better than
we may have thought but I will stick with my picks. The Redskins to beat the Patriots in the Bowl still looks solid.
Check back with me after week eight.
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